All-Time Highs, Dow 20,000 and the Hangover that Awaits…

A longer post today with some fun facts and history and of course some perspective. Here we go.

Where were you at dow 10,000…the first time in 1999?

I was up at Pebble Beach watching CNBC. I don’t event think the CNBC ‘Markets in Turmoil’ producer was born yet.

The Dow went on to rally 2,000 more points before the internet crash and a plunge to 7,500.

It took 6 years for the Dow to get back to 10,000 and in late 2006, I had created Wallstrip and we celebrated Dow 12,000 with this show:

Yesterday, another 10 years later, we almost celebrated Dow 20,000.

It has been a hard fought 10,000 points since 1999. Here is the full chart of the Dow:

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As the Dow fast approaches 20,000, the key questions are…

1. Will it stick if we get there?

2. Will in take 17 years to double again to 40,000?

3. If we do rise, how can I beat the Dow?

Here is the current lay of the land…

Today, The Republicans are in charge BIGLY. The stock market is in party mode.

The NYSE Composite Index, one of the broadest measures of the stock market is at all-time highs.

BUT, the ONLY 3 PERIODS of extended unified Republican governments going back to 1900 ALL DIRECTLY led to banking crises

Rick’s Cabaret ( $RICK chain of strip clubs) is at highs not seen since George Bush presidency in 2008. Makes perfect sense to me.

The Russian stock market ETF is up a record 10 days in a row, but still down 60 percent from 2007 highs. Putin was caught celebrating:

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Color me skeptical of anything Russia while Yandex (their lone public internet company) wallows 50 percent below it’s all time highs.

The Chinese Yuan falls to a FIVE year low. Head on over to $CTRP and book your really cheap trip to China with your strong US dollars. Meet your likely leaders by the time the Dow hits 40,000.

1 Year US Treasury Yields are at 8 year highs (as I have written…the bond market hates Donald trump) and it is almost certain the FED will hike rates today.

In 1999, I was excited to use my Nokia phone to call my broker and get a stock quote.

In 2016, I can yell at 6 brokers all at once from my smartphone on ‘Houseparty‘ (luckily I am an investor so it won’t matter what the stock market does)

Hope this helps.

PS – There is only one side of the market and its not the bull side or the bear side…just the right side. Jesse Livermore.


Also published on Medium.