I Told You So Tuesday…The Crypto Crash of 2018

As I write this on Tuesday eve at 5 pm, cryptos and tokens are crashing. Bitcoin briefly traded below $10,000 and Ethereum back under $900.

We crashed (or are in the middle of a crash).

There are a ton of ‘I Told You So’s’ flying around my streams today.

I get a kick out of people trying to ‘save’ others from bad investments using social media. It’s the only thing worse than a ‘I Told You So’ tweet.

You can’t save people when a mania is underway. People will chase. The fever as I have chronicled here the past six months has been raging.

The media was fueling it.

I pick on #CNBC because they make it easy (here are some old posts that offered some advice to them). Here they were running a ‘How to Buy Bitcoin’ special with Bitcoin at $19,000 in December (this afternoon at Bitcoin $10,000 they will not run this same special which would be a much better time to run it and they won’t). By mid December I was nervous and started to sense we were on the ‘borrowed time‘ part of the mania and continued to sell some positions down.

The media continued feeding the fever.

Today, I sense a lot of nervousness. We went from confident to smug to nervous very fast. The rapid 1,000 percent rises followed by fifty percent crashes will do that.

It is very hard to make good decisions when you are nervous. I have been nervous hundreds of times when it comes to my positions and markets. I only got better at investing (and even trading) when I started to journal in 2005. I guarantee that all the best investors do it religiously.

If you want to be a better investor, write all your trades/investments down on paper or keep a digital journal. You do not have to share anything publicly. Find mentors and groups that don’t lecture, but lead by example. Find people that share and take responsibility for their ideas and they do it consistently. Most importantly when you find that person and/or group, be respectful, show some appreciation and pay it forward.

PS – Losing money is not funny, but the money business has always had a dark sense of humor. There are no feelings. In that vein…this was hysterical from Stocktwits today – many creative replies.


Also published on Medium.