Twitter…The Anti-Froth IPO!

I love hearing that Twitter will price at $17-$20 (November 6th). I despise Goldman and bankers. ZERO value add in pricing a hot deal. If AngelList can raise money in an organized way for start-ups (they do), you can’t possibly tell me that two monkeys with a Twitter account could not run the Twitter IPO.

Furthermore, Twitter does not NEED cash. They don’t deserve more cash than they already have. They have crowdsourced in a bullying and creative way most of the value of the real-time streams (to date) already. It’s by no means unfair or a monopoly but let’s just call it like it is. If they can’t make this work on what they have, let’s just do the Harvard case study and move on.

If Twitter were to price it’s shares at $17 and raise $1.2 billion. They also have a free $1 billion in a loan. They have piles of cash from prior raises. Enough. They just spent $350 million on a company doing $6 million in revenue. I could do that.

The markets have been more than fair with Twitter. It’s a nice touch hopefully that Twitter is going low (based on what I perceived what the stock could fetch). If there are more serious fundamental reasons they are pricing at $11 billion than shame on Twitter for just handing the board members $16 million PER in options.

My gut is that the stock would print north of $30 if they traded tomorrow on this pricing.

I would be a buyer knowing what I know at $11 billion and liquidity to trade it.


  1. Paul Rubillo says:

    Spot on Howard! Unlike the Facebook IPO, the retail investor will probably stay away when they should actually be paying attention to what should be an attractive lower valuation.

  2. ivanhoff says:

    Private markets don’t have enough liquidity for a $11bn exit. For almost any non-profitable company with over a billion market cap, going public is the only exit.

Comments are closed.