I have been in a little writer’s block period for the last month. It’s over now.
It’s no fun writing about the broken stock market and the blame game is now at an all-time high mode. This is typical end of bubble bullshit. Fancy editorials about the people and the crimes AFTER THE FACT.
But I just realized something great….Web 4.48 (3.0 is too obvious and boring as I laid claim to this a few years ago) is upon us.
Web 1.0 was a land grab. We know the winners.
Web 2.0 was an attention grab. We are not sure who the ultimate winners are because in the attention game, people get tired both of chasing it and getting it. Think of nightclubs and pop stars. Web 2.0 was fun and light, but there will be few big winners. If I had to pick just one I would say Twitter.
Web 4.48 is a very subtle change. Subtle because it is easier than ever to GET attention or start a business on the web.
The web 2.0 attention getters are on the verge of fading away. This is truly not to be mean. Getting attention is extremely tiring if you have nothing behind it. Jason Calacanis gave up his blog not because he had nothing to say. He will always want to be the loudest guy in the room. It’s because picking fights and getting called douchebag get tiring. Same thing with Michael Arrington. The only time he gets to the top of the NEW Techmeme is when he is at his nastiest and meanest. People are quickly losing interest and writers in the tech space focused on ideas are cruising (Mashable, Hip Mojo, Venture Beat, Om etc….), They may not have the page views, but they have the energy.
Web 4.48 will see longer lasting brands built again because the businesses will be built around smaller communities working on ideas. They won’t be sexy billion dollar companies and they may not get bought out. They surely won’t be going public.
BUT…..They will be profitable.
I am happy about that and happy to be a part of that.
If you are not…head into healthcare and biotech because that’s where the VC money will be forced.