Maybe QE three will be the top, but it looks like we steamrolled the shortsellers once again. I now wonder if QE4 hits the markets before the iPhone 6!
This spring and summer as the ‘pundits’ were long $FB and the bank CEO’s were gushing for 100 percent long equities.
I became cautious (not short) and lightened up on stocks. I wrote three blog posts about ‘What a market top looks like’. We buckled, but never collapsed.
In July, I outlined my stocks that I still felt confident about and owned. It felt like the market was looking forward past the $ZNGA $GRPN and Faceplant debacles.
In August, I wrote about the ‘Four (scratch that 3) Horsemen of the Internet‘ and they have not disappointed since.
Last week even I was buying Faceplant ($FB). I faded my own cynicism.
I don’t understand why small investors and ‘novices’ short individual stocks or the leveraged ETF’s that marketers cooked up for them, but they do and I guess always will. I look at it today as fuel. The Fed just lit a match to gasoline drenched paper money.
The ‘book’ says buy financials into, but I say buy the strongest companies, emerging from the best bases and keep it simple here.
Software has that extra Warren Buffet bid under it as he owns $IBM.
The best and brightest web companies at this point have a bid under them from the cash rich Large Caps.
I have gotten more and more bullish on $GOOG the last few months (long) as I feel (and watch some growth numbers) the energy of web video and have been telling people in New York this week how Google is actually a hedge against my web video startup investments. Yep, the way I see it, being long $GOOG is my hedge against risky web video startup investments.
I will likely do some rotation in my portfolio to add a few new names and sell down some winners if we keep rocking higher under the faucet of the Fed.
I have been short these type of rallies. I feel the ‘smart money’ pain. The world is more upset today than at the bottom in 2008. Hard to believe, but that’s how I read it.
What are you doing?