The fun speculating about what $aapl will do with it’s cash horde will end tomorrow. They are not going to do something small. It makes no sense to have a separate press conference for that.
As a shareholder I am quite happy that they have never given me the cash. How would I have done better than them to date. My friend John Melloy at CNBC did a quick scan of his great rolodex and all he could come back with is a 2.5 percent annual dividend. Way too conservative and why cater to underperforming closet ETF managers. If Tim declares a big dividend, I can see Steve Jobs rolling over in his grave.
They won’t buy $amzn. It’s just too big and risky at $84 billion and assuming no premium.
They should get into banking and payments and if I knew more about the sector I would speculate with names. They would not buy a legacy bank.
It has to be social and should be content related. They hate dealing with the music companies. They hate dealing with the TV people and cable people. Also, Spotify and Rdio are already gat music options. Apple TV is great (I just bought one) but after using it for a few days it is not a cable killer. That may take another generation especially without Steve Jobs around to negotiate.
In Social they have had their clocks cleaned. They display Facebook and Twitter but have little control. They can’t buy Facebook for the same reasons as $AMZN. Too big. Too fast.
It has to be Twitter.
They can afford it. Even if they overpay for Twitter…say $12 billion, the market would chase the synergies higher for a long time. It’s a great short-term trade for US treasuries and long-term investment thesis as a payment and utility that even Steve Jobs could take credit for from the heavens.
Nothing else moves the needle worthy of a special announcement.
Update…Disclosure – Long $aapl and $twit …sorry