It is easy to be negative. It’s liberating to be all cash. You get more traffic calling for the end of the world. You even sound smarter.
For all the negativity and pain of 2020, it is hard for me NOT to be extremely bullish.
I invest in fintech/finserv and 2020’s volatility and growth have been spectacular.
Here are two charts of investments nearest and dearest to me that make it hard for me to contain my excitement…
And this one which is all Robinhood and Etoro (two portfolio winners from this trend):
Young people have the bug.
While older people will no doubt leave the stock market (for good reasons – listen to my ‘Panic With Friends’ podcast with 75 year old veteran trader Peter Brandt), the younger audience is more dialed in than the Etrade generation.
Late night conversations on Twitter between Elon Musk and Davey Day Trader Portnoy are way more entertaining and insightful than CNBC and Cramer ever were:
It will only get more cooky and thrilling for the kids.
In the last THREE years, new gen-z and millennials investors/traders have seen a shitcoin bubble, a crypto crash, a pandemic, a closed economy, $VIX 90, no travel, college debt up the ying yang and soaring avocado prices.
They took it all in stride and are laughing in the cloud while betting on future growth companies and reverse merger IPO’s like Virgin Galactic and DraftKings ($SPCE and $DKNG).
The media and elders are lecturing them on how to buy $1 for 75 cents and they are paying $2 for 75 cents because they know it will be worth $10 in a few years. As Josh says, growth investing for the kids is just value investing in disguise.
The hedge fund ‘titans’ who have all the money are lining up along S&P 2,900 to call the top. The death and economic destruction from the pandemic is incredibly real which is making ‘top’ hedge fund managers (people I do not take seriously in making my own investment decisions) extremely bearish.
My gut says they don’t mean what they say and they are hedged.
If they truly are bearish, they could be fuel for an even sharper rally some point soon. They would have to come clean at much higher prices.
I’m old and conservative, but hope the Robinhood/Etoro/Stocktwits generation gets this trade right.
Either way, the first half of 2020 has been an incredible century of investing.