All Bets Are Off…

  • Posted by
  • on September 29th, 2008

First off…I apologize.

On Friday I blogged ‘To Splurge or Not to Splurge…It’s Obvious’. Well, I guess not!

I have been very patient telling people to stay away from this market since January, but Thursday and Friday I was buying and rather large quantities of Apple, Amazon, Google, Russia and Gold. Other than Gold, it’s been a shitstorm after today. I have been doing my buying on Twitter and disclaiming it with I don’t think the average investor should be following me. Problem is, many still have.

For me, it was easy to short indexes and retailers as I was doing all day on twitter, but for most, they are now quite buried in just a few short days and not liekly to have been shorting as i was. I have a low tolerance for pain so am happy to shed stocks at a loss, but most investors are not. This market is so viciously bearish that it will rip the heart out of the complacent. I know better and for that I apologize to all the new investors that come here.

The reason I chose Amazon, Google and Apple are for their growth (at least perceived Growth oportunities in my eyes). When the shit hits the fan, I would rather own companies that are growing. If I were to make a guess as to which three internet and mobile businesses would grow the fastest over the next 5 years, regardeless of market conditions, I would choose these three companies. Same today. Now, I am hoping for an abatement of selling. That’s never a good position to be in when owning stocks.

Today, I did no buying in these three names until the close (sold puts earlier in the day) and it looks like I will see no relief for a while. My total portfolio lightness will allow me to be wrong on a few stocks right now, but losing money still sucks.

So what went wrong TODAY.

In hindsight, everything. The Washington Post must know something about this. As Mathew points out , ‘bloodbath’ was the word of the day for ‘Google Juice’. Trader Mike does his usual amazing wrap up on days like today with many useful data points.

The market has been demanding a large scope bailout plan for weeks. The market has been chewing through financials one by one until it gets what it wants.

Let’s not kid ourselves, the markets are rigged. The bailout is a wimpy ass way to deal with the problem for sure, but a $1.2 trillion loss in market cap was just TODAY’s tradeoff. The market wants some extra rigging short-term and a meltdown is/was the trade-off.

The people in Washington know very little about a lot of things. That is their specialty, their claime to fame. They know shit ass less than nothing about the stock market and the MOOD of America that matters (money). Today, you saw what a bad mood can bring from traders. Tomorrow and for the next week you will see what panic brings as the selling accelerates.

This crisis though is not about the stock market, it is about THE CREDIT MARKETS. There is NO access to capital. We are shut down for business. Way worse than after 9/11 when the markets were closed. At least than, we were out shopping at the request of our President. Now we are just deer in the headlights at the whim of the House of Reps and Congress and Senate who just seem out to punish the rich. Bullshit politics. Everybody has a chance to be famous. They are really punishing everybody else.

The FED is out of bullets and we have absolutely zero leadership or hopes of any leadership soon. I like Obama, and would vote for him, but he is no market wizard.

Unless McCain has the secret to the crisis written down on a napkin and hidden in his left cheek we are f@#ked.

Sad days. More to come.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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