Apple, Amazon and Oil…Start Buying?

  • Posted by
  • on January 14th, 2009

I am!

I own Amazon, a smidge of Apple and have been selling premium again in Oil. I am a wuss. If I had size of OTHER people’s money I would be more balls to the wall. Tomorrow I will buy more of each.

There is one thing I am sure of and that is the US dollar is overpriced for what lies ahead. A second thing I am pretty sure of, it’s that the world will not see their dependence on oil drop much more anytime soon – especially with oil so cheap. I am not going to make chaos bets, I would rather shoot for singles and doubles in a horrid tape and not bet on a boom or the end of the world. I want to keep my head straight and you do that by staying flexible. Not too connected to one idea. I also have plenty of start-up exposure and that is more fun and has bigger upside for me.

My big bet is short retail through the Retail Index and that is because of the real estate aspect, the balance sheet issues and the consumer. I am short RTH, BBY and COF. My hedge is to be long the best retailer ever – AMAZON. Second best retailer…Apple.

If my longer term macro thesis makes any sense, than buying cheap oil with overpriced US dollars could be fantastic and I need to make that investment. The US government is/should be doing it as should/is China and they should just take over Europe together (meet in the middle) and store all the fucking oil in France. That should cusion huge drops from these depressed levels.

The one chaos bet is that France becomes a giant sea of oil for us to drink from our long straws. Open to ideas on an option strategy to play it… :)

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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