I am heading out on a major east coast swing having spent the last month comfortably in Phoenix.
I will by New York, Baltimore, Philly, Boston and North Carolina.
I have really gotten into a good routine working and biking in the desert the last month, so will miss it. My bike circuit (I share it on Strava) has this great steep climb that I have been obsessed with. I also have three of my favorite restaurants within a 2 minute drive, one a stone throw actually. My food circuit is Pizzeria Bianco, Tarbell’s and Steak 44. Truly world class food in the heart of Phoenix. When I do eat breakfast, I generally go big in Phoenix at The Pancake House and get the 49’ers. The one food Phoenix sorely lacks is Chinese food so I plan on binging on the east coast.
Speaking of Chinese, this piece from Andreesen Horowitz on ‘Trends in China‘ is excellent. Watch it.
Finally, I was given the perfect setup by my Twitter friend Tren Griffin (a strategist for Microsoft):
What do all of the above stocks have in common, other than being able to grow their earnings and sales in an impressive manner? They spend a lot of time on the 52-week highs list and set up multiple times.
The U.S. stock market indexes bottomed on March 9th, 2009. A couple days later, two stocks broke out to new all-time highs. Both of them went up more than 10x after their breakouts. One was Green Mountain Coffee Roasters, which was acquired in 2015. The other one was Netflix. Netflix went up 44X in the past decade and today it is a 62-billion dollar company. In 2000, Blockbuster refused to buy Netflix for $50 million, because “it was a very small niche business”.
4. Some pretty regular people were seed investors in Uber and Snapchat. Indirectly even I did.
How great a sport is active investing when you can have shitty eyes, no strength, no speed, a bad diet, and yet have a long career.
I would argue that the more people index today, the greater the swing back one day we will see towards active.
It’s not supposed to be easy. Anyone who finds it easy is stupid.
Personally, I believe we are in a Vanilla ETF clowncar headed off a cliff!
It does not matter though what I think or feel. I have been following prices and getting dragged along. I feed the gods some stock along the way because I know it’s not easy and respect what the market has given me.
We live in a world where Jack Dorsey is CEO of a public Company most have never heard of called Square ($SQ) trading tonight at all-time highs – and also the CEO of Twitter, which most of the world has heard of and trading near all-time lows.
Michael Batnick wrote this great piece and hypothesizes that all of us invested right now might just be’handcuff volunteers‘.
As fun and profitable as this boom has been for so many, it is not easy to make money investing. The hardest part of this last boom has been getting and staying invested. For those that did, you are smart, if even for just ignoring all the headlines that have scared most out along the way.
Longish post…I will make the rest of the week lighter I promise….here goes…
Pre internet the world was all ‘ball bearings’. While the biggest and best ball bearing companies continue to thrive, the internet has created a dizzying pace of digital ‘bundling and unbundling’.
There is no rest in this era. You must continue to bundle, unbundle, build, buy, bet it all and hoard if you want to rule the web for more than a moment.
The Snapchat S1 and IPO amplify the discussion once again. Even at $25 billion, one can use the word ‘demise’ and make good sense . The Instagram attack/strangle move on Snapchat makes me appreciate the giant real-time and weird niche of Twitter. As big as Twitter is, it’s still niche. They have not come to terms with it from a cost perspective, but the market is forcing them to focus. The new Twitter search and explore button is good. The content within the tab is underwhelming, but as an addict, we hope they get it right and feed my addiction bigly and betterly! All said, at $10 billion today, Twitter seems like a better relative value stock than Snapchat and I hold some shares to keep me feeling alive.
I live in the niche and the deep verticals. Most of Social Leverage’s angel investments that get me most excited started as niche products solving a personal pain point – Robinhood, Chart IQ, Lifelock, GolfNow to name a few. My own Wallstrip was super niche (a video show about stocks at all-time highs), yet if I was to start a web video company in 2017, I would attack it the same way. Stocktwits is niche. My favorite blogs, Stocktwits follows and Twitter follows are masters of their niches and have a’special purpose‘.
Speaking of niche, the internet, and ‘special purpose’ – I bring you Ben Thompson who says ..’we all underestimate the scale of the internet’. I am a huge fan (everyone here knows) of Ben Thompson. He understands strategy and the internet in a way that makes me think the markets could be undervalued (this post was from 2013).
Ben just gave a great talk on the subject of media and the big tech giants. Peter Kafka followed up with a great interview of Ben. Ben is doing something magical and inspiring in an era of the ginormous. Because the ginormous entities tend to swallow the niche, it is fun to watch Ben stay true to the power of his passion while leveraging the internet. I urge you to watch it all. Ben speaks fast so 30 minutes feels like 12. He offers a fantastic roadmap on how to build a niche yet bigly publishing business.
The market is not scared of Donald Trump. I won’t argue with the market. This is not a Trump rally or a Fed rally or a boating accident…it is the ‘Ambien’ stock market of 2017. Not even an invasion of Sweden could wake it.
S&P 500: 45 Trading days without a 1% intraday move, the most peaceful market in history. $SPX #Serenity
Seeing the continued domination by Costco, Home Depot and Ebay – Amazon still has a lot of winning and markets to take. Or maybe they never do stop these great remaining retailers (Autozone could be lumped in here too though it has struggled of late).
It’s fitting that CONagra is at all time high, same as tobacco, Goldman and chemicals.
This was a funny screen grab of a CNBC euphoria moment today:
Markets in Turmoil….I mean it's a god damn 'inherited' mess…I mean buy the fuck everything you see that has a ticker Mortimer… https://t.co/iDL9ejAe5y
Stocktwits has tens of thousands of contributors and hundreds of thousands of active users.
I have long wanted to celebrate the good, the bad, the funny and the ugly of the social financial web (blogs, mainstream financial media and Twitter too). We will finally do that at Stocktoberfest this March 30th.
Our community and a wide group of trusted friends in the financial industry have helped us put together the award categories that I share for the first time publicly now:
Stocktoberfest East Cashtag Awards
Awards celebrating the stock market, the social financial web, and the people who make the financial community entertaining and fun.
Below are the final categories. The panel of judges and community have selected 8 to 12 finalists for each category. We will be sharing the finalists in the next few days and let the fun and bragging rights begin. No Stocktwits employee or people involved in the show (like Josh Brown have been included in the awards). The categories are:
The Greatest chart of 2016
Chart Artist of 2016
The Most Talked About Market story of 2016
The Best Financial Blog
The Financial Twitter account of the Year
The Stocktwits Person of the Year
Best Use of Social by an Investment Advisor
Stocktwits Rising Star of the Year
The Best Bots of Stocktwits
The most Outrageous Market Call of the Year
The Market Meme of the Year
The Best use of Social Data for Investment Research
I added some security stocks to my portfolio over the last year – Checkpoint $CHKP, Palo Alto Networks $PANW and Akamai $AKAM. All three are volatile. I am down on my Akamai position (I journal all these ideas on Stocktwits in real time).
Over $5 billion has poured into security startups the last two years. The hedge funds know this and their proxies are the public stocks. Owning the right basket should continue to pay dividends as dips get bought for now.
If Vanguard was a public company the stock would be at all time highs today. Every hedge fund would be short declaring it was a great business with crappy margins. Analysts would have called Vanguard overvalued the last 10 years.
It’s perfect that the company is called Kustomer.com …with our new education leadership, the legal spelling of customer might get changed to Kustomer.
I have a lot more to say about Kustomer and customers over the next few weeks. I am also excited that Brad will be fireside chatting with me in NYC next month at Stocktoberfest .
In the meantime, my post from May of last year – ‘The Death of Retail is the Birth of Retail‘ is just as relevant today and has some great links worth rereading. Per the blog post, I remain long Amazon, Shopify and Apple but have since sold Paypal.