BTFD China? and Congrats Microsoft

It was fun to catch the last few holes of the Tiger win today. Ramp Capital pointed out that the last time Tiger Woods won a golf tournament the Dow was at 15,600 (today it is at 26,700).

One of my fave follows on Stocktwits is Ian McMillan who shares lots of charts and keeps it simple.

A couple that caught my eye tonight as I was scanning his stream was this one of Chinese technology stocks:

And this one of Chinese real estate stocks:

Meanwhile Norway is breaking out which means be nice to your Norwegian friends:

Oh and look at this Microsoft chart:

Have a great week everyone.

All-Time Highs and Is Cannabis The New Crypto?

I am flying to Toronto today. Toronto is home to the World Angel Summit and I was invited to give a presentation. It will be fun seeing family and friends. From Toronto I am off to New York for a few weeks.

I have a bunch of good reads and podcasts set for the long day of travel so will share them below..but first some market catch ups….

God bless the S&P. IT has now had a record 560 days above the 200 day moving average. This is NOT bearish. I do believe that when this run ends, we will pay a nasty price.

We have a long list of companies you will recognize on the all-time high list.

We are on pace for the 10th straight positive year for the Dow, the S&P and the Nasdaq. Wowzers.

The rest of the world continues to lag the S&P badly. Charlie has the best graphic for context.

The Fed Funds rate is back above 2 percent – the pre Lehman crisis. I don’t claim to know what this really means, but it seemed like a cool chart!

Weed rhymes with Greed and this was one hell of a week for both.


First – Tilray finally peaked at 420 times sales. This was a good read on all things Tilray.

If you follow me on Stocktwits you know I own ONE cannabis stock $GWPH. I own it purely from listening to Todd Harrison (my go to person for all things public company cannabis related). Todd has talked about it at the last two Stocktoberfest’s. He will be making a rare third straight (triple lindy) Stocktoberfest appearance next month. $GWPH closed the week strong near all-time highs.

Barron’s is out stealing Barry’s mid week headline from above with ‘Marijuana Stocks are The New Bitcoin‘.

Of course there is an Uber for Weed.

Ok enough about Cannabis. What about Crypto?

By Friday, the weed trade seemed to be ending and the crypto trade back on. You might enjoy this Ben Horowitz interview on Crypto (disclosure – long Bitcoin).

This was a good thread on why the selling in Ethereum may not be over (disclosure – long Ethereum)

Now to the rest of the reads and podcasts…

A good read from professor Scott on the Apple and Amazon product releases.

The exploding Chinese middle class.

The amazing Howard Lutnick and Cantor Fitzgerald.

This was a great read on Juul and teenagers….ugh.

An oral history of Apple’s infinite loop is really good.

Exactly why Benioff bought Time Magazine and Bezos The Washington Post.

Every generation gets the beach villain it deserves reminds me of a few neighbors I have had.

Great ‘Masters of Scale’ podcast with Instagram founder Kevin Systrom.

This podcast with a fantastic trend follower Salem Abraham.

PS – I am building my Toronto presentation using Beautiful.AI which my friend Shiva recommended. Looks cool so far.

Rules are Meant To Be Broken

I love this post titled ‘Limitless‘ from Sarah who has a blog called ‘The Delusional Trader’.

My challenge to you is the same challenge I brought to myself last year – change the way you look at things, and the things you look at will change. Break out of your comfort zone, loosen your stops, start a blog, reach out to people on Twitter you look up to – take a chance on yourself!
The second I started taking a chance, was the second my life began to change. I’m still just an average Jill, but previously shut and completely unknown doors are beginning to open. My mind is continuing to expand and my personal “Wall of Worry” is coming down like it’s June 1990. For now, I’m just a girl on a Greyhound bus, but maybe next year I will be writing to you from the Acela Express. #DailyDelusions

Go Sarah go!

I also like this investing thought from Ian:

Buffett does it his way while Schloss did it another way. Ichan does it his way while Lynch did it another way. Tepper does it his way while Andreessen does it another. The greatest investors ever have opposing strategies. Learn from all of them & don’t be afraid to be different.

In the comments was this Bruce Lee quote:

Use only that which works, and take it from wherever you can find it.

I googled ‘rules are meant to be broken’:

“rules are meant to be broken” means that if something has to be stated as a rule, it is something that is not absolutely necessary, but rather preferable. So while theoretically you would be better off never breaking the rule, it’s expected that you have a tendency to break the rule.

Have a great weekend.

My Prostate Exam

The other day I went for a physical. It has been a while.

I mentioned yesterday that I have long battled anxiety.

In my 30’s it manifested in me being a hypochondriac. Being able to surf the web did not help. It was way too easy to look up all the diseases I thought I had!

Let’s go to wikipedia…

“Hypochondriacs become their symptoms. … “Many of the symptoms that hypochondriacs feel are often physical sensations caused by anxiety or depression that can go along with hypochondria. The constant worrying can release harmful stress hormones and do real physical damage.”

I am now a reformed hypochondriac who avoids doctors.

It seems that blood tests cover most of the physical which makes sense to me and so bing bam boom the physical was over. I told the doctor (a lady) that my wife wanted me to have a colonoscopy. She asked me if we were fighting…(ok I made this part up).

She brought up the dreaded prostate question and asked if I wanted one. I started sweating.

First off…who the hell wants a prostate exam!

Next thing you know all I could think about was tweeting. There is something really wrong with me, but that is for another doctor.

I will say doctors are underpaid!

I am not sure why this part of the physical took FOUR hours but she did say everything felt fine.

The Anxiety Economy… and The Tilray Top?

Today, before lunch, Tilray ($TLRY – weed grower and distributor) was worth more than Twitter.

After lunch this happened:

Weed is supposed to help ease anxiety, but watching weed stocks increases anxiety…welcome to 2018.

Anxiety is a huge growth industry in America.

I have long suffered from anxiety, but Lexapro, therapy, cycling and awareness about my smartphone usage has my anxiety mostly squashed.

Anxiety is the most common mental health disorder in the US. It affects nearly 1 in 5 Americans annually and almost one-third over the course of their lifetimes.

I really liked this ‘anxiety economy‘ piece.

I am seeing mens health ecommerce companies just explode in growth. Here is one called Roman that just raised $88 million. The dumbphone might just work too.

I imagine an anxiety ETF – ticker symbol $ANXIOUS is right around the corner.

Disclosure – Long Anxiety

What Does Speculation Look Like… MoviePass, Bitcoin and Tilray

There is literally no fear in US markets.

We are moving from explosion to implosion in an endless fashion.

Everyone is a speculator and I would speculate it is due to the massive on boarding of a new investing generation that are loving their free or very low fee trading and group chat.

My friend Charlie Bilelo has been posting some great charts the last 24 hours that made me shake my head so I had to share them.

Let’s start with the 2017 stock market darling MoviePass:

That ended well as you can see.

No worries…weed and Tilray ($TLRY) to the rescue:

This will end very badly, but it has already been bad for ‘smart money’ trying to time when this will end badly.

Bitcoin has been a little different in that speculating in almost EVERY payment strategy has paid off since 2009 when the first Bitcoin transaction took place:

It is truly a 24/7 shock and awe era for speculators.

Momentum Monday…A Pause That Refreshes?

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

Happy Monday everyone.

It seemed too good to be true last week in my world of ‘momentum’ and a lot of really good looking ideas have paused and in some cases quickly reversed. Logistic stocks never followed through, biotech stocks are reversing back into bases and my Nasdaq idea is down quickly.

It happens.

I love making the show each week with Ivan so I can focus on the work. The work of looking at . prices and sectors and talking through ideas with another professional like Ivan. The work holds us accountable (even if the audience was just one person) and helps us keep our portfolio’s tidy.

Today, Fred has a great post titled ‘creative prompts‘ which fits well with why I write and do the weekly show. If it works for the best like Fred Wilson, Howard Stern and Paul McCartney, it should work for you. Just make the time and don’t worry about the ‘who’ is reading/watching/listening and ‘how many’. It is the process that leads to growth.

Here is this week’s episode. I hope you enjoy.

Our Wall Of Worry is The World’s House of Pain

Last Monday I wrote about ‘The Wall of Worry’ the market was climbing. A lot of people did not know what that meant so here is a definition:

Wall of worry is the financial markets’ periodic tendency to surmount a host of negative factors and keep ascending. Wall of worry is generally used in connection with the stock markets, referring to their resilience when running into a temporary stumbling block, rather than a permanent impediment to a market advance.

I was skimming the streams last night and I had no idea it was so ugly for so may countries beyond China and Bitcoin. But some large countries and markets are in some serious drawdowns outside the USA.

The question is when and where will the house of pain start – if ever – for the US ?

I don’t really trust much of what I read when it comes to opinions but I believe the trade war will have many unintended consequences.

I think we will know a lot more in the coming months about how resilient US stocks can be as other markets suffer in this connected world.

I am enjoying my wins while they last as always nothing remains too good for too long.

Apple Is Humming

It was another big week for Apple.

Ben Thompson wrote a great piece titled’ The iPhone Franchise‘ . For those too lazy to read it, Ben sums it up:

That is the iPhone: it is a franchise, the closest thing to a hardware annuity stream tech has ever seen. Some people buy an iPhone every year; some are on a two-year cycle; others wait for screens to crack, batteries to die, or apps to slow. Nearly all, though, buy another iPhone, making the purpose of yesterday’s keynote less an exercise in selling a device and more a matter of informing self-selected segments which device they will ultimately buy, and for what price.

I really enjoyed this explanation from Abacaus as well this week on ‘The Five Ways Apple is Embracing China‘.

My friend Farbood texted me a note explaining the amazing rollout of technology mixed with humanism by Apple:

Because we are starting to butt up against Moore’s law, processing is becoming parallelized.For example, GPUs running alongside CPUs.

Last year Apple added a neural net processor to parallelize further in the A11 chip.The first neural processor in the A11 chip did 600 billion ops/sec. The new A12 chip does 5 trillion ops/sec and went from 2 cores to 8

But computing, like everything at Apple, lives at the intersection of technology and humanism. It’s what we can do with these performance improvements that matters.

Even now, NBA teams are not using real-time video processing with ML to improve a player’s shooting. In one iPhone release, Apple puts that into the hands of a child and 10s of millions of people. This is beautifully demonstrated in the Homecourt demo exactly 1 hour into the Apple keynote from yesterday.

This is a technology that didn’t exist for even the NBA. And now exists in the hands of anyone with a new iPhone. Apple is distributing computation/technology unavailable to anyone in the world, to everyone in the world. This will continue for decades.

I’m with Farbood.

Disclosure – Long Apple

So You Want To Be A Venture Capitalist…

Yesterday I talked about edges.

Today, Airware, a drone company that raised $118 million from venture capitalists including A16z, Kleiner Perkins and Google Ventures shut their doors.

When I think about venture capital investing and edges a few great brands come to mind…Andreesen’s A16z, Google Venture and Kleiner Perkins are three of them.

If you could dollar cost average capital with them over time you will make outsized returns.

If you can invest in a fund/group of companies in which all three were on the cap table, you would and you should.

If you want to cherry pick company by company …YOU actually better be the one with an edge, because even with all their edges they still get a lot wrong.

Stay woke and have a good weekend.

PS – I turn 53 on Monday so please remember to enjoy your youth.