Momentum Monday…Will Facebook’s Faceplant Carry Over?

Today Facebook shed nearly $40 billion.

I figured it was a good time to do a ‘Momentum Monday’ with Ivanhoff to riff on what it could mean for the markets, momentum and tech in general (15 minutes long and 1 minute of small talk before we dive into charts):

I do not own Facebook and it’s not even on my 8 to 80 list. I like Instagram and appreciate Whatsapp but have never been a core Facebook user.

Facebook has never been NOT EVIL. We have always been the product. They are a digital Equifax/Equifax so nothing about them and our data would surprise me. They might want to change their name to ‘Foot-in-Mouthbook’.

I think the take of the day is that Facebook will not be in the race to $1 trillion or may never get there, despite dominating the globe:

I don’t think anything Facebook does hurts Amazon or Apple in their race to $1 trillion. These Amazon numbers are really insane.

The Facebook press nightmare is also relatively good for Twitter – which is a mean neighborhood to hang out in but knows much less about you. The politicians love Twitter because it’s the easiest place for ‘thoughts, prayers and lies’.

I think this is a really big day for Blockchain and decentralization, but in a bear market for crypto you will not get rewarded as quickly as last year.

As for the rest of technology and the markets… just tune into the show and listen or watch.

PS – For Facebook bulls…Equifax crashed 30 percent after their big data breach and they have recovered 50 percent of the crash in the last 6 months. Equifax did this without having an addictive product.

PSS – I like BOX CEO Aaron Levie take on the Facebook fiasco:

We’re in the very early stages of a major shift in software. As more of the world goes digital, the responsibility of tech companies grows exponentially. The days of arguing that (and acting like) tech companies are merely platforms and pipes are behind us.

PSSS – Ben Thompson has a great take on the Facebook fiasco.

First They Came For Your Crypto…

Before I get into it…this made me smile:

Now to the markets…

Ramp Capital summed up this weekend of crypto and NCAA Basketball pretty well:

My bracket is more rekt than my dad’s crypto portfolio

REKT is a real crypto term…so is HODL. No wonder the money is being taken away!

Sadly for millennials, this crash is happening at the same time that Avocado prices are surging

The ‘millennial crypto’ bear market is really happening. In January, the market capitalization of all cryptocurrencies and tokens passed $800 billion. Today it dropped below $280 billion.

I have no idea when the bear market ends, though I did start buying back some Ethereum below $600 and $500 this weekend.

The big question is whether this crypto bear spreads to stocks.

Take a look at the Russell Microcap Index which is at all-time highs:

Risk remains on, just very mobile.

Here Comes Stocktoberfest New York City – April 25th

Stocktoberfest is coming… April 25th in New York

When Ian took over as CEO at Stocktwits a couple years back he said he wanted to keep Stocktoberfest going.

I explained how hard these shows were (at least on me) and that if I only had to show up, I was thrilled.

I do still get to speak.

Pierce Crosby (he leads data sales and business development for Stocktwits) has taken the content baton from me and has done a fantastic job getting great people to come speak and share ideas.

This years speaker lineup (scroll down on the link above) is the best ever as Stocktwits looks ahead at the future of markets. Great venture capitalists, investors, traders, quants, hedgies, reporters and founders of cool fintech startups will be taking the stage.

Of course, everyone will be sharing their favorite ideas. Last year for example, it was Fred Wilson who dropped Ethereum on the audience. It was $40 (now $600).

I have a $100 discount code (click here) so come join us if you are in the city.

Technicals and Chart Art

I saw this from my friend Brian Shannon a great shorter term trader and lover of charts.

charts are criticized for “perfectly predicting the past” by close-minded market participants who cling to stale financial reports. have an open mind and use the best of both, nothing wrong w identifying a strong company via fundamentals and then timing the entry w technicals

I’m with Brian.

I let the all-time high list do most of my fundamental research.

I am always explaining my public markets strategy to people. I love doing that because it forces me to hone things.

Most investors or traders will never get comfortable with my style. Thank goodness. Less competition.

When I talk about high price, trend following, buying high to sell higher…I lose almost everyone.

But what about fundamentals…but what about valuation…but Hillary…

The best stocks of all-time defy all valuation metrics and I have no rebuttal for ‘but Hillary’ (other than walking away).

It’s repetition and process. I am so lucky to love what I do.

There will always be posers in life and on the all-ime high list, so you still have to walk the streets, spend some money, make calls, read smart people and learn to trust your eyes and ears.

Epic Day at Riviera

I took most of the day off today to play golf with Fred Wilson, Max and his best friend Matt Moss at Riviera. I was hoping to run into Larry David, but it was not to be.

Here we are on the 18th with the awesome clubhouse and green in the distance…

Only Matt had his A game and he carded a 33 on the back 9. I cut a deal to be his agent. My game is receding quicker than my hairline. I had an ugly 4 on 18 for an 89.

It’s 2018 so if you own tech stocks, it’s dumb to watch the markets and work. You just let it ride.

JC has a great post on the subject of the historic breakout in technology stocks.

The Race To 1 Trillion…and a Wallstrip Reunion

The daily email has been messed up with problems on my service provider. I think we have it fixed. You can always just go read it directly on my website.

Today I was visiting with some startups at The Science office in Santa Monica. I miss the beach life and the startup scene in Santa Monica is thriving. My friend Peter Pham is really doing an great job with his partner Mike Jones. They were the home that hatched the billion dollar brand ‘Dollar Shave Club’.

My friend Fred Wilson is taking Max and I to play Riviera tomorrow which will be fun.

Tonight I got together with Fred Wilson and Lindsay Campbell for a Wallstrip Reunion.

Fred was my first investor in Wallstrip back in 2006 (this was before his investments in Twitter, Zynga, Etsy, Coinbase) and Lindsay was the host and star of the show. Here they are back in 2006 (a great interview).

Lindsay now runs video for IMDB (an Amazon company).

Every few months I call Lindsay with a show idea and each time she politely tells me I am crazy and to leave her alone. God bless her!

Now to the markets…

Amazon passed Microsoft today in market value. Ho Hum!

Apple is 8 percent away from reaching one trillion.

If this current Nasdaq run continues thorough 2018 it’s almost a ‘pickem between Apple, Google and Amazon for the race to 1 trillion.

I will stick with my Apple call from years back, but I own all three.

March 9, 2009 ….Be Grateful and The Birth of National BTFD Day.

This made me laugh this morning as unike the Nasdaq, Bitcoin is down 50 plus percent off it’s highs.


The Nasdaq closed at all time highs on Friday. That is NOT bearish.

Here is a long-term chart

Here is a shorter term chart that shows the recent correction and quick recovery again this week to highs:

Nine years ago Friday the S&P bottomed after crashing 57 percent from its top in 2007 and the beginning of the financial crisis.

On March 9, 2009 I was with the family on a vacation in Atlantis and I was buying stocks that morning. I am happy to say I still own a lot of that Amazon.

I think journalling has helped me be a better investor and while I continue to make mistakes and share them here, this blog has helped me stick with this boom. It’s never been easier to journal and it’s not important that anyone reads it. If you want to be a better investor or trader give it a try.

PS – To memorialize March 9, 2009, Stocktwits has made it a #NationalBTFDDay and is offering 20 percent off our gear with the code BTFD.

Voice Voice Voice

Yesterday, I was driving the family home from Sedona and so I got to be in charge of music.

I blue-toothed my Spotify play list and the rest of the family whipped out their airpods to tune me and my music out with their own music.

From a user perspective, other than the airpods for the whole family, I’m late to the voice trend.

I am not a podcast guy, but all around me it seems podcasts and voice are the new new thing,

With Amazon, Google and Apple now battling it out with products to listen in on us in the home (under the guise of letting us shop or ask the weather), voice technology is exploding.

Here is a good Amazon piece ‘The Veni, Vidi, Vici of Voice.

Prediction: Between touchscreens and voice, most people in the future won’t even know how to touch-type, and typing will go back to being a specialist practitioner’s skill, limited to long-form authors, programmers, and (perhaps) antiquarian hipsters who also own fixies and roast their own coffee. My 2-year-old daughter will likely never learn how to drive (and every pedal-to-the-metal, “flooring it” driving analogy will be lost on her), instead issuing voice commands to her self-driving car. And she’ll also not know what QWERTY is, or have her left pinkie wired to the mental notion of the letter “Q,” as I do so subconsciously I reach for it without even thinking. Instead, she’ll speak into an empty room and expect the global hive-mind, along with its AI handmaidens, to answer.

The data-for-money alchemy that pays for the Internet will no longer only be turning Google queries and Facebook actions into fortunes. Rather, the new data inputs of value will be her spoken requests to the ambient and ubiquitous smart speakers, which will follow her seamlessly like a disembodied servant from home to transit to work. Dynamically-generated targeted ads, based on those spoken queries, will fill the gaps in her ever-present stream of music, podcasts, and books. Perhaps they’ll even be synthesized to sound like Ira Glass or Joe Rogan or some other favorite host (since so-called ‘host-read’ ads outperform random human voices).

Computer keyboards will then join typewriters in the history museum displays, and that complicated larynx, unique among primates, that first set us down the road to sophisticated social intelligence will once again be central to how we navigate the world.

Here is another Wired article on the rise of daily news podcasts.

Finally, a third Wired article titled ‘Inside the Alexa Prize

I’m riding this trend with Apple, Google and Amazon which seems rather boring.

If I were to add some spice, Twilio ($TWLO) has broken out to a three year high.