Make the US Dollar Weak Again and Plop Plop Fizz Fizz

I was in San Francisco for the day so no time for a Momentum Monday video with Ivanhoff. 

Not much has changed in world of Momentum this week. 

The US Dollar continues to evaporate in 2017…now down 9 percent.  Make America great again rhetoric actually made the US dollar weak again which has actually made American manufacturing and exports relatively inexpensive again which is good for sales.  

This chart sums up my continued enthusiasm at the moment:

It’s not that stocks have to keep going up, but as Tom says … this is not how bull markets end. 

It’s not all about technology in this boom.  

I have this old  jingle and tagline in my head today from Alka Seltzer. 

When I hear ‘fizz’ in 2017 I think of Lacroix, the flavored seltzer drink of avocado eating hipsters.  The public ticker symbol of National Beverage Corp. the owner of Lacroix, is $FIZZ.

Here is a chart:

I follow leading stocks and have watched this run without me. 

$FIZZ has a ton of social buzz. 

It reminds me of the social buzz around Crocs ($CROX) back in the day. I was a Crocs believer and shareholder but as the stock doubled and tripled I thought management should have used the high priced stock to buy other companies and not become a one hit wonder. I’m glad I sold. 

I don’t see the moat for a soda. Bloomberg has a good summary of the bear case. 

My gut says plop plop for fizz. 

Stay tuned. 

StockTwits Adds Streams and Symbology for 100+ Cryptocurrencies and Tokens

On Friday, StockTwits Added Streams and Symbology for 100+ Cryptocurrencies and Tokens. It is really cool.

Justin Paterno (Stocktwits COO) reminded of the backstory of this launch.

Way back in 2010 I had this idea that private companies should have tickers just like public companies.

Bitcoin was probably under $1 and tokens were just a dream…

I had the Stocktwits team code it up and we hustled to get private companies to try and adopt the language.

I knew Twitter and Zynga would go public for example and thought they should have ticker symbols that people could use to chat on the social webs.

I went to the Nasdaq first as a partner and they just looked at me funny.

Barry Silbert thought it was a good idea and at the time he was running his last startup Second Market. We partnered on rolling it out.

I explained it to Fred Wilson as well and he thought it was a great idea. Here is his post explaining it better than I could at the time.

It never really took off (not Fred’s fault).

Ironically, Nasdaq eventually acquired Second Market and Barry went on to found the Digital Currency Group. He is all smiles from this Bitcoin trend and will still take my calls.

I was a tad early and a few degrees off.

Here we are in 2017 and billions are being invested in the Cryptocurrency and token space. They are THE new form of public markets/asset class and now traders, investors and founders can talk about them all day long using .x and ticker symbols we create on Stocktwits.

As an example here is Bitcoin – $BTC.X

I guess there really are no bad ideas!

Facebook is no Fun

I sat in my friends Ferrari yesterday and posted the photo to Instagram saying it was a new toy of mine:

New toy … made out of Ethereum

A post shared by Howard Lindzon (@howardlindzon) on

On Instagram people just liked the photo and moved on.

I posted it on Twitter today and nobody believed for an instant that it was my car.

I sent the same photo to Facebook, which I rarely use, and all hell broke loose. I’ve had to explain to a lot of friends that I did not buy the car.

For as much as Facebook knows about me, they know nothing about me.

There is No Such Thing as A Bad Idea?

I hear this ‘no bad idea’ line often these days.

Maybe it’s true.

I do know there is:

Much greed

Too many chiefs

Bad timing

Poor planning

Awful hires

Crappy advice

Sales delays

Hidden costs

etc…

The liquid markets today are covering up a lot of the capital at risk in these ‘not bad’ ideas.

Guns, Liquor, Nails and Tattoos …Make the Strip Mall Great Again 

I got on my bike late this morning in Coronado and headed south on the Strand as I always do.

Once the Strand ends I mix up my ride through Chula Vista which is the last California town north of Mexico. 

I rode by this strip mall and had to stop and try to buy it:


Talk about the perfect recession proof tenants!

I asked people on Stocktwits and Twitter who I should chase down for the other two spaces. 

Joe Weisenthal from Bloomberg said I should open a trading bucket shop. I like that if I can sell  Bitcoin, not gold. 

Pretty much the rest of my audience offered up bail bonds, liquor, divorce attorney, pawn shop, payday loans, vape and weed store and laundromat. 

I may just have to raise my offer on this sure thing. 

Markets Come at You Fast…Do Not Chase Them

I have this thing I do on Stocktwits where I share the investments/trades I make with/for my daughter Rachel in a Robinhood account. Just putting my daughter’s name on an investment idea makes me slow down and ask ‘is this something Rachel could explain to my father in law’.

Nobody else seems to be taking their time these days. There is a lot of chasing right now.

Our President has continued to tweet about the stock market doing well as the proxy for his success. He has been in office six months and is taking credit for the stock market having a great year.

Here is the thing – with the exception of Russia, EVERY single country ETF in the world is positive in 2017 with an average return of 19%.

Risk is on absolutely everywhere.

In fact, confidence has relatively waned in the US. The US dollar is at 11 month lows. The world is selling US dollars and buying emerging market stocks, Greek bonds, Bitcoin and Ethereum.

It is a great time to remember that the markets are opportunity machines and you do not have to watch any news, catch every move or understand every sector and narrative.

In fact, most of the times, the markets come back to you and bad things happen to you when you chase markets and stocks.

This weekend I mentioned on the blog I was buying back some Ethereum as a mini panic was at hand. The digital currencies were coming back to me.

Well, today I was selling some as it rallied from $140 lows to $240.

Of course people are asking me why I sold if I was thinking about it as a public venture capital investment and not a trader.

Fair question.

Here is the answer – I am always willing to let an investment become a trade and try not to let a trade become an investment.

If a market or stock gives you gains in two days you would have been happy with in two years, it’s ok to change your timeframe!

PS – If you think you are too late to the Bitcoin trend, here is Josh Brown just today buying his first Bitcoin. A great read.

People ask me every day where I buy Bitcoin. I use Coinbase for all my small purchases. If you want to get started use this link and we both can get $10.

And finally…never give up! I love this:

Momentum Monday and Billionaires Bitching

Nobody has yelled at stocks and markets more than me.

Now I just block people. Blocking is my new yelling.

So, it brings me great joy watching others yell at stocks, markets and each other on the internet, especially billionaires who are stressed about not keeping up with the S&P.

David Einhorn is really upset that Amazon and Tesla won’t go down and stay down. David thinks Tesla and Amazon are overvalued. You don’t say….

I am sure David is right about Elon and Tesla not being the next Steve Jobs and Apple. Congrats on that risky call.

Here is an excerpt from his recent quarterly letter:

“The second quarter was a bit of a head-scratcher. Our five biggest longs reported earnings that met or exceeded expectations, while our shorts announced earnings that mostly disappointed. Nonetheless, we lost money in the quarter,” Einhorn wrote in the investor letter Friday. “The bubble basket was particularly frustrating.”

Lot’s of nachas with this call david.

Elsewhere in billionaires bitching….

JP Morgan’s criminal in chief Jamie Dimon said this last week:

“It’s almost an embarrassment being an American citizen traveling around the world and listening to the stupid shit we have to deal with in this country. And at one point we all have to get our act together or we won’t do what we’re supposed to [do] for the average Americans.”

Dear god.

As a Canadian who loves being an American citizen, the $25 billion in fines JP Morgan has paid while he got to remain CEO of a cash machine is the real ‘stupid shit’ and the embarrassment of all time to this nation. He should be thanking the Republicans who he does not have the nuts to name.

I travelled abroad this summer and while the country remains split on Red/Blue, 99 percent think Jamie, Lloyd and crew should have done the perp walk in 2009.

As for today’s Momentum Monday with Ivan…I have enclosed it below (here is the link). There is so much working right now. There are a lot of new and old names we run through. Hope you enjoy:

Snapchat, Ethereum, Bitcoin, China and India…Being a Public Market Venture Capitalist

Tomorrow I will buy my first shares of Snapchat. It is below the IPO price.

Today I was buying some Ethereum. I started at $190 and bought down every $10 into the $140’s and it seems to have stopped going down for the moment. I remember the good old days of MAY, 2017 when it last traded at $140.

This week it looks like I will be buying for Bitcoin (would probably start buying at $1700).

The last few years I have started to treat a few of my liquid positions as public venture capital.

I explained it a bit when I started buying Ctrip ($CTRP) and MakeMyTrip ($MMYT). I have never really owned Chinese and Indian stocks but since I will likely never invest in startups in these places, owning leaders in certain industries is my way of being a venture capitalist in these markets. I get the added benefit of liquidity if I change my mind.

Generally I give new stocks I buy very little room for error. I keep stops at around 10 percent and if stocks do well I try and let them ride as long as possible within a band.

With my 8-80 portfolio where I put most my public stock allocations, I am thinking of owning for 5 plus years and look for 20 plus percent drops to add or enter.

With my public venture capital ideas, I am willing to give positions a much wider loss range of 40-60 percent (that has not happened yet thank goodness) and my first buys will likely be early and wrong.

This is how I am thinking about Snapchat for instance…

At $17 billion it is obviously not a startup, but I believe Facebook/Instagram can’t kill it. Facebook has done a fantastic job of keeping a lid on them for sure, but I believe it is as likely that Snapchat is worth $40-$60 billion in a market like today than say $5 billion. So, if I can average into a position over time of $13 billion (assuming Snapchat keep dropping over the next 3-6 months), I have good upside/downside risk picture.

It’s easy to stay up to date on Snapchat as I own and operate two millennial/Z generations kids.

If Snapchat gets taken out in a month at $30 billion…great.

Have a great week.