Coronado Life and Little Italy Regrets

It has been a spectacular week of sun and fun in San Diego. It is hard to explain the peace and joy I get from living on Coronado. I am trying to find a rhythm to the slower pace of life.

Here is my current blogging view at 8 pm on Coronado…

Max has been working endless hours it seems at a local restaurant and Rachel is headed off to Easter Island for a few weeks so it is very different for Ellen and I having the kids around but not needing much of anything from us.

I have long been bullish on San Diego but am currently (and finally) being blown away by the growth in my favorite part of town called Little Italy.

About five years ago I took an office in Little Italy at a co-working space I personally invested in called Deskhub. The workspace is now full and thriving.

Little Italy is five minutes from the San Diego airport, on the ocean, and a stone throw from the I5 (which in no light traffic is 2.5 hours from Los Angeles).

I am not wired to invest or speculate in real estate but as I invested my working time in Little, I contemplated dropping everything to speculate on the neighborhood. It would have been a fantastic investment. It will continue to be a great investment for people.

Between UberX and Bird, Little Italy has it’s only issue (parking) pretty much solved.

I am surprised that Facebook and Google have not set up shop here for their best people as a lifestyle perk. Once they do, today’s prices will look cheap.

If you are reading this and have $5-50 million burning a hole in your pocket and need a partner with ugly feet and a bad hairline, dial me up.

Who Has The Best Business Model?

It’s back to work not that Independence Day is behind us. I can’t believe it is already July and half of 2018 is gone.

Back to work for me means more reading and networking to find the next big winners in startups and the stock market.

I read this great piece from Eric Feng of Kleiner Perkins titled ‘Who Has The Best Business Model‘. It is definitely something venture capitalists like to discuss. Have a read. I agree with him that Google and Facebook should make a run at Shopify to diversify out of the advertising business. I like how he ends it:

As the fight continues for control of our phones, our homes, our cars, our wallets, our food, our health, our time, a key weapon on the battlefield will be what business model they wield. And I believe that shared-value transactions powered by commerce will be the most lethal weapon of choice in determining whose business reputation will remain intact.

In the stock market, the best business model does not mean the best stocks or returns.

It’s easy to banter about the returns of the big internet companies, but since 2010 it is Domino’s that beats Netflix and the rest of FAANG since 2010:

Bitcoin has no business model but is up many more thousands of percent than Netflix over the same time period.

If you are looking for the best stocks since 2010 it is actually paint protection film, manufactured housing and commercial dry cleaning equipment that have made their investors the most money

How can you not love the world of investing!

Momentum Monday…Summer Trading and Tesla Trolling

Before I get into it…today’s episode of people have too much spare time comes from this knucklehead (I have titled it ‘Goldman Sachs New Client Meeting’):

Onwards to Momentum Monday

Elon Musk made a critical mistake today by calling Tesla a car Company. The stock fell about 10 percent intraday on the news that they too might be Ford or GM one day.

I am not sure people will EVER appreciate the power and subtle genius of Twitter which is why I have been so passionate over the years about the company, the stock and of course Stocktwits.

Elon Musk is doing exactly what I suspected/speculated CEO’s of public companies would be doing on Twitter back in 2008. The edgy tightrope he is walking re SEC rules is intense as he battles short sellers and promotes Tesla daily.

Today, he was trolled by Steven Armstrong, the CEO of Ford Europe with this beauty:

At the end of today’s show I dive deeper into the Tesla chart and both sides of the fundamental arguments taking place.

Outside of Tesla, there is a lot to unpack in this normally quiet trading week. Ivanhoff and I do our thing today and the video is below. The first few minutes I make sure Ivanhoff explains Bulgarian independence.

We also walk through some pet stocks holding up well, the solar stocks, some biotech ideas and the carnage in Chinese names.

As Ivanhoff sums up…’The market environment has certainly changed in the past couple of weeks. We went from a market, where almost all breakout led to a quick 10-30% move to a market with many failed breakouts. Many Chinese Internet stocks are already down 10-20% from their recent highs and trading near levels of potential support. It will be interesting to see if dip buyers start to step in.’

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

The Age of Video and No Excuses to Learn

I grew up in the era of magazines. You got your stock tips monthly in Fortune or Smart Money (they were already 2 months old by print) or your golf instruction from Golf Magazine and Golf Digest.

Max’s friend (and mine) Jackson Moss shot this video of my golf swing the other day which I posted to Twitter. The responses were funny (scroll away) as to be expected, but I also got some amazing instructional tips.

I took one of Jackson in return. His game is primed right now and he just qualified for the World Juniors (which I will go watch at Torrey Pines in a few weeks to cheer him on).

My partner Tom saw it and sent me this via text re my collapsing left arm:

I have not really enjoyed golf the last few years. I have been too busy to play much and away from my home course in San Diego.

I decided to take some of the feedback from the video to the range today and the results were really good. I wish I had tools like this when I was learning the game and had all the free time in the world.

Pearl Jam and The Blockchain

I am excited to be back on Coronado for the 4th of July. It is one of the best places in America to feel the spirit of the holiday.

I don’t feel like writing about investing or markets until after the 4th so bear with me.

I have had Pearl Jam in heavy rotation the last month.

I can play Black, Better Man and Yellow Ledbetter over and over and not get tired of them.

I have absolutely no idea what the hell Eddie is saying in Yellow Ledbetter and never remember the name of the song, which is exactly how I feel when someone tries to explain the Blockchain to me.

Have a great Saturday.

Nike Just Did It…Fashology 101

One of my fave stocks and companies is back at all-time highs tonight. Nike is up $10 billion after hours on their earnings report.

The markets continue to be efficient…a few hours a year.

I like to be right when I pick stocks so it feels good. Nike has made me look smart. I picked it as a favorite for this year back in December. At tonight’s price Nike is up 25 percent for the year.

In March, my friends at ‘Modern Trader’ did a longer interview with me about my reasons I think Nike would continue to trend. I don’t have the link but you can put on some glasses and take a read here:

I have no real idea why I am so right ‘tonight’ other than it seems most people and machines were wrong going into earnings.

I have no idea which number the analysts and machines will glob onto each quarter so I refuse to play that game. I stand as far away from the line of scrimmage as I can with great companies. Nike, in my opinion, continues to be misunderstood by Wall Street. They offer the millennial generation fashion and style on a continuous basis in an era of technology sameness.

Before you chime in with ‘so do tatoos’…I give you this from Jim O’Shaunnesy which made me go hell yeah!

There are now three companies (of twelve total) in my 8-80 portfolio that I consider ‘Fashology’… Nike, Apple and LULU.

As for diving into Nike numbers…my friend Jeff Macke loves doing it for retail and fashology companies and he said it was a ‘beautiful’ quarter.

As for what do the shoe dogs think…my fried Kunal is always honest:

As for uncool seniors like me…I just bought two pair of their flat sole skate shoes (they go great with my man pants) and think they have a winner and a shoe that even Vans fans may like:

As for the Nike retail stores (at least SOHO and Santa Monica)…they rock. I see 500 of those around the world one day.

Have a great Friday.

PS – Humblebrag …here is the cover of Modern Trader …It’s ‘Howie and Big Oil’:

The Bad News is Trends End…The Good News Is Trends End

This tweet made me laugh out loud (LOL for you hipster millennials):

That was the only thing funny today!

It was a tough day for me. I had to make the fonts on my iPhone bigger. Next stop diapers and a nursing home.

Luckily I have a superior attitude and my kids still like me.

It was also a tough day for stocks that I own.

I am not alone it seems.

A few months back a whopping 75 percent of international equity markets were in uptrends. Today that is 54 percent.

China is now in a bear market. Most of America won’t hear about it or care about it. I am not sure I care about it myself. One thing that seems certain once the Chinese bear is over is Alibaba and Tencent will still be battling for supremacy (good read).

I can hear all the third quarter conference call excuses now…’The unexpected strength in the US dollar threw off our international sales growth, the trade war is hurting our budgeting and costs, and people are not out spending because they are worried about the elections in November’.

If this is just a pause in the markets that refresh…fantastic. I own some great stocks and can find some new ones in a stronger tape.

If not… trends ending beget new trends beginning. That is the joy of being able to participate in markets. Your job and mine is to stay in the game.

PS – One big uptrend has emerged through all the nastiness, noise and rhetoric of tariffs and MAGA is oil . It’s now up 170 percent since February 2016. I guess we should not be surprised.

PS – If you are really panicked and up for adventure, it has never been a better time to pack up and head to an emerging market with your US dollars.

Betting on Things That Never Change…And A Smile

Yesterday I drove up to Dana Point to attend The Ritholtz investing conference.

It is fun to see my friends doing well. Here I am with the gang.

I caught up with Morgan Housel who is consistently the best financial strategy writer and thinker in my network. I told him he was way too hot and said I was gunning to bring him down a notch. He laughed it off, but during a panel he fell right into my trap

In true Morgan style he wrote this piece today which is just awesome titled ‘Betting on Things That Never Change‘. Read it and than remind yourself to read it every month. It will make you money.

I also had the great pleasure of meeting Ben Hunt. Ben started the most excellent ‘Epsilon Theory‘ blog. I have learned so much about investing from his essays. In person, he is even more awesome. We spent and hour talking about investing. I was very proud that I did not make one ‘Mike Hunt’ joke. I set the bar very low for myself in situations like this.

Today, Max and I got up at 4 am to drive the 7 hours from San Diego to Tuscon for Max’s University of Arizona orientation.

I am spent.

As for a smile…this ‘Carpool and Karaoke’ episode with Paul McCartney was 20 minutes of joy.

Momentum Monday – I Wish It Was Friday

Ugly day. Period.

I guess rising interest rates, trade wars and inflation are not fantastic for the markets.

I will get right to this week’s episode of Momentum Monday. Here is the link, or watch below:

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in oand will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

During the last few Momentum Monday’s I talked about the chasing and the rampant speculation. Here is last week’s post where I discussed the frenzy and worried that the emerging market flu would spread.

Over the last week it is the airlines (19 month low) and the homebuilders that really keeled over. The Dow is down on the year (first time below 200 day moving average since the election) and the S&P is flat. The emerging markets mess continues.

Last year by many measures was the least volatile in market history and this year is shaping up to be the most volatile.

Today, they came for the beloved Chinese stocks, enterprise stocks and FAANG.

I like this David Tepper quote that Ivanhoff reminded me of today…’There are times to make money and there are times not to lose money.’