Apple Services and My Keychain Problem

I got a lot of great feedback and suggestions on my ‘senior moments’ post early this week. I appreciate the ideas, and links and good spirit from this community. It’s nice to hear from people. I love when people say hello. I try and answer all emails and am so grateful to have such a diverse and smart community of readers.

I took one idea to heart and purchased a case for my Airpods to attach to my body. For now they are attached to my keys. Problem is my keychain is starting to look like those of a janitor:

I now need an assistant to carry my keys so as not to wreck my $LULU pants.

I posted the photo on Twitter and a funny thread ensued with some good ideas, wisdom and hacks.

Next up…While I have been a crazy road warrior the last few months, Ellen and I also moved into a new home in Phoenix. Ellen of course did all the planning, designing, moving, loan negotiations and paperwork.

We live right in the city on the squaw peak mountains and this is our new morning hike outside our home.

This is the best time of the year to live in Phoenix and so I am glad to be home for a bit.

Next up…Apple Services…

Ben Thompson has the best deep take on the recent Apple event.

Bob Lefsetz, as usual, the most emotional.

I think both takes have it right.

I think a lot of fintech ‘neo bank’ companies had a nervous afternoon on the gross but interesting partnership between Apple and Goldman’s Sack.

The Tim Apple jokes and insults were flying in my streams. People think Apple is not being bold enough.

Apple is my largest position which seems like just another ‘senior moment’ right now, but I am fine with Apple ‘the utility’ and Apple ‘the retailer’ and Apple ‘the services company’.

I don’t think they can continue to dominate as a hardware and software company. There will be no next iPhone.

I don’t think Apple will win the ‘living room’ (they will surely get a piece), but I think thats’s an overrated strategy. They are sticking with your hands, your eyes, your screen, your wrist and your ears. It makes sense that they go for our wallet.

Tim’s version of skating to where the puck is going is R&D, small acquisitions and cash flow from services.

I like that Apple is finally in banking without all the headaches of being a bank.

Take A Bow $LULU and Writing Is The New Resume

Once in a while I get something really right and this was the case with $LULU. The numbers wre indeed fantastic. Here is how the stock will open today.

The stock is now an 80 bagger since the bottom in 2009. $LULU knows a thing or two about bottoms (sorry…):

I got some nice notes from readers who bought some as well. Congrats to them.

The analysts continue to call this trend ‘athleisure’ which is bullshit. Americans work harder than ever. I do not consider myself an athlete not do I wear leisure clothing. If I did, it would be a cape and top hat (red velvet).

This is a ‘fashology’ trend. $LULU products are fashion statements and the materials are simple but technically the best for comfort at home or work.

Next up….

I really like the writing of David Perrell. In his latest piece he says:

Writing is the new resume. Whether you’re building a business, leading a project, or applying for a new job, writing is how you get attention.

I could not agree more.

For those interested, he has put together a writing course.

I don’t know enough about the course or David, so if you do try it, please let me know how it goes and I will share the feedback with this community.

Have a great day.

$LULU On My Mind

I don’t get too excited about quarterly earnings.

But, I have spent a lot of money at $LULU in the few months and today $LULU reports earnings after the bell.

The numbers will be silly good. They are absolutely crushing it.

That does not mean the stock will rise because everyone knows $LULU is crushing it. The short sellers know it, but they cannot help themselves because they love shorting high P/E, retail, and fashion stocks. They think stocks like $LULU are fads. They are definitely not customers.

Fashology, like the internet, is NOT a fad.

The Wall Street Journal is finally reporting on what I have been blabbering about for a few years…’Men Ditch Suits and Retailers Struggle To React‘.

My nephew Eli has been wearing $LULU ABC pants and their casual dress shirts, sweatshirts and golf shirts to work for over a year.

I continue to wear more and more $LULU. For me it is acceptable to wear the clothes to meetings. For travel $LULU is the most functional to wear and pack. I can cold wash the clothes and hang them in a hotel room to be worn the next day. I pack less, I pack lighter and traveling is just easier.

I wear $LULU to run, do yoga, and golf. They experimented with APL selling shoes in the store, but have just ended the partnership. It just proves how strong Nike is (long) and how badly UnderArmor must be doing trying to take Nike on in shoes. I am testing some new Nike ‘yoga’ clothing and it does not hold a candle to $LULU quality.

I saw the first two $LULU stores being built in Amsterdam a few weeks ago and I have no doubt the stores will be a hit. Asia will eventually be a massive market too.

Their emails and e-commerce are getting better by the week.

I keep hoping the stock gets crushed because I only own a few shares at the moment and it is one of my 8 to 80 stocks. I have a feeling that the stock will not oblige.

Senior Moments in a Streaming Life

Senior moments are coming at me fast and furious (movie idea…two old jewish guys in fast cars driving dangerously across town going to pick up stuff they forgot at restaurants and the golf course – ‘Fast and Furious – Senior Moments’).

I’ve talked about the age spots on my hand. I hate them.

My manscaping is a daily ritual. Not the below the belt kind, but the nose and ear hairs have become a whack a mole situation. (shameless plug – Social Leverage portfolio company Manscaped.com is growing as fast as the hairs on my ear).

But, it is my memory or lack thereof that has me upset most of the time.

I write things down, I keep a good calendar and I practice little tricks now with my iPhone, but still can’t avoid the senior memory moments.

Every day I have to Google a name or thing on the tip of my tongue while sharing a story.

Last week I left a brand new iPad sitting on the ground in the Apple bag at a store counter as I paid for a Gatorade. I was at the UTC mall in san Diego and was so excited to get the big new iPad with keyboard. Of course, Verizon was down and could not get my cellular connected so I could not finish the setup.

I went to meet my friend Peter for dinner at Din Fai Tang (yes of course I looked that up for 12th time and yes the food is great) and on the way to car I stopped at the outdoor shop to grab a Gatorade for the drive home and must have forgotten it at the counter.

When I got home I noticed the bag was missing. I called Peter who for said call the restaurant. I called the restaurant thinking no way they would help. Five minutes later they called saying they has a video of me leaving the store with the bag. Turns out the Taiwanese are watching us from within our own country!

I went to bed putting my steps back together and figured it had to have been the small outdoor convenience store.

I drove back to the mall the next morning and miracle of miracles, the store owner had kept the box and I was reunited with my iPad. The kid at the nightshift who held it for me was now working a morning shift at Starbucks across the way. I went in, ordered a coffee and handed him $100 as I shook his hand – said thank you so much and left. Good kid.

Today, while getting a car wash in Phoenix, I must have taken the AirPod case with me out of the car and left them at the counter or dropped them somewhere (the AirPods were in my ear) because when I got home I had that realization again. As luck would have it, someone turned them in at the car wash and my AirPods were reunited with their case.

By the way, it is not just me, My wife Ellen, who is 11 days younger than me, asks me to call her phone at least THREE times a day. This morning while I was trying to leave we searched the house over and over for her purse that had all her worldly possessions. That took an hour though it was in plain sight.

The streaming life we live in will not slow down for us until we lose all the things that stream life for us.

PS – Ellen and I got AirPod cases at the Apple store to clip to our bodies.

PSS – Fred has a good post about life in a constant stream of email and meetings.

Momentum Monday…Let’s See How The Chasers React

As a reminder, Marketsmith (by Investor’s Business Daily) is now a sponsor of the weekly show. All the charts you have been seeing in the videos and will continue to see are from Marketsmith. They are offering my readers a three week trial for $19.95. Click this link if you would like to try it out.

Friday was a bloodbath for momentum.

Almost very software and security stock I follow was down 5 percent.

We will know more this week as to how important Friday’s action was. Banks stocks and small cap indexes were weak relative to the good price action in technology the last month, so without technology leadership the markets could see a lot more downside.

Ivanhoff and I toured the markets as usual to discuss. You can watch or listen here.

If you like following momentum and want to swing trade, try Marketwisdom.

Have a great week.

Stocktwits Rooms – Who I Pay For

Last November, I wrote a detailed post titled ‘What I Read, What I Pay For, Who I Follow and How to Get Started Investing‘.

I noted at the end…

Now that Stocktwits has launched premium Rooms (group chats) I plan on spending $150/month for my favorite traders that set up there.

I am spending $80/month so far (here is a link to the premium rooms page), but love the different ideas I am seeing and how I am easily able to stay up on the markets from different viewpoints. The people that I pay for right now include:

Zortrades – Swing Trading ($39/month)

Ophir Gottlieb – Option Pattern Recognition ($9.99/month)

John Markman – Intermediate Term Trades ($5/month)

Mark Newton – Technical Trade Setups ($25/month)

The Stocktwits rooms are easy to sign up for because of Stripe payments. You pay monthly. The email alerts are the perfect way for me to stay on top of things because I might not check into the rooms on a daily basis.

Here is a sample of an email alert you get from a premium room owner:

This is a very tailored way to use Stocktwits for many that demand a simple way to check markets, get ideas and quality mentoring.

If you want to set up a ‘premium’ room, just hit me up and I will put you in touch with the team.

You can also set up a free room and invite your friends to have a great mobile and desktop group chat experience about stocks and markets.

Software Ate A Lot Of The World Since December… Relative Strength Primer

Back in December as the market was crashing, I shared some software stock ideas in this post titled ‘which software is eating the world relatively best’. The specific stocks I mentioned included:

$SMAR
$PLAN
$AYX
$TEAM
$MDB
$ESTC

Because the market has now reversed course and crashed to the upside I wanted to check back in.

As you can see from the graph, the six stocks have had monster gains over the 90 so days.

Using Koyfin, tracking my research posts like this has been really easy. You can track the peer group I used in this Koyfin Dashboard. You can update the dashboard with different metrics, and share with your friends.

It feels good to be right.

December was a mess, but I knew there was opportunity.

Even better…everyone has the same free tools that I use to do this. Software is eating the world and feeding the people that use it well.

The trend is now our friend again, but my guess is this would be a good time to panic first and take some profits.

JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs – Drifiting Down

Apple is back above $190, Microsoft is at all-time highs and Google is running higher (I think it may be the largest company in the world – for a point in time in 2019).

The FAANG’s are under attack by the government these days, with Tweets from Fat Nixon and breakup plans by Democrats, but it is Goldman and JP Morgan whose stocks remain in the toilet.

It should be a perfect storm for the banks. No oversight, no competition, lot’s of IPO’s. From one look at the chart, we see it is not.

I look for relative strength when markets are weak. I want to own the strongest stocks, the stocks that hold up best when the markets have dropped.

I want to avoid the weakest relative strength stocks when the market has been rising.

If I were to speculate, other than IPO’s the banks are under assault for growth and margins by technology companies everywhere.

They also seem to have lost their mojo.

My fave read on the world of banking is from Matt Levine at Bloomberg. You can subscribe right here.

In the March 8th piece titled ‘You Have to Pay The Right Person‘, Matt riffs on Goldman’s SSG (Special Situations Group) that printed money for the bank and now wants to raise outside capital. From Matt:

But they all have an end-of-an-era feel to them. There is a real pre-crisis feel to Goldman Sachs running a business investing its own money in strange and risky and unconstrained ways. SSG has always had a certain mystique, and you would not have described it as a “steady, low-risk businesses like money management.” But that seems to be its future.

Boohoo.

Dear College Students and Parents…Continued.

My post yesterday struck a chord. The feedback was 100 percent positive. That makes me nervous in a Larry David sort of way.

I really liked my friend Ian Sigalow’s comment on my post:

Technology has commoditized access to information. It will soon commoditize access to people. When the door opens you better know how to communicate.

My daughter Rachel is a great communicator. She is a great listener. I want Max to be a better communicator and as I mentioned a few months back on this blog I set up a Google document for him to write about his daily college life. He has taken it seriously and continues to impress. I love getting a text from him each day that he has finished his writing for the day.

I have no friends in high places but my networks do. My networks can open doors for my kids, but that does not guarantee success. As Ian says, when the door opens, they better know how to communicate.

PS – Ben Hunt and Scott Galloway have excellent posts about the college admission scandals.

Here is Ben’s take titled ‘The Ministry of Rotes and The Compassionate Man‘.

Scott’s post is titled ‘How I Got Here‘.