This Bull Market is Making Me Nervous!

These Pretzels are making me Thirsty

I love this great scene and the riff from a Seinfeld episode.

If I were to huddle up a few of the biggest active money managers workin today I would recreate this Seinfeld scene around the line:

This bull market is making me nervous‘.

The below are just six things I have cherry picked today from millions of bullish and bearish thoughts shared across the web. I have gone for a mix of the good, the bad and the bizarre.

1. The Dow has made 33 all-time highs so far this year. I love the strength. The bears would argue that if today is the last all-time high of the year, we would tie 1929 and we all know what happened that year.

2. No amount of Trump disapproval is bad for the market. The more you disapprove of him, the higher stocks will go:

3. Howard Marks was out last week with his memo and it carried a cautious tone. It’s worth a full read.

As Howie says…’you can’t predict buy you can prepare’.

Here are 92 other good quotes from Howard.

To be fair to the bulls…Howie (I imagine he would let me call him Howie) turned cautious in 2011.

4. Donald Trump keeps celebrating stock market highs. This from Josh absolutely nails how pissed I get when Trump takes credit for anything stock market related:

The President called the stock market a bubble last summer, 2000 Dow points ago. Now he thinks it’s his report card.

The problem with following Trump is he will blame Congress, the Russians and anyone else in his sight once the market proves him wrong.

Furthermore, The Dow is up a whopping 40 percent over the last 18 months and he has been President for just seven.

5. Janet Yellen was quoted or maybe misquoted saying this, but it did come from Reuters:

Talk about tempting fate!

6. This meme from Bitcoin and Crypto enthusisats had me smiling because it’s both wonderful and scary that so much enthusiasm exists for this sector.

I remember Yahoo message boards in 1999. It was the most exuberant place on earth.

So….where does that leave me?

It is as noisy out there as you want to let it be!

I continue to get pulled into stocks by the price action. The longer the bull goes the better for me. I invest in uptrends and long uptrends create profits in my account. I know the losses and volatility will eventually come and I will take big losses when the turn comes.

In January 2008, the last great run in stocks was coming to an end. I got crushed as the market shook. It was the last great warning for what was to become the ‘Financial Crisis‘.

I took my lumps that January (you can go check my archives easily), getting stopped out of a lot of stocks whose trends were broken. It was painful, but not nearly as bad as holding through the massive crash that lied ahead.

By 2011, the markets had got me pretty much invested in stocks once again. Now, here we are now in August 2017, historically the worst month for stocks and we have been in a wonderful global stock environment.

It’s been a great run.

I don’t see my next January 2008, but I am preparing myself mentally by writing about it today.


Also published on Medium.