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I guess Microsoft is getting lot’s of free press.

If Microsoft has cash it feels it must burn, why not buy a tobacco company? As Umair Haque would have to agree, at least the could use their corporate DNA to help grow sales. Bully, bully, bully. Anyways, nerds should smoke…it’s cool.

I am not picking on Microsoft the people or even the company or the stock, just the weak effort the leadership is making to stay relevant. They have built this amazing cash hoard and instead of giving it back to shareholders or better yet, giving it away to feed the world, $44 billion (all if not most of their cash) will get wired out to an old media company disguised as a new media company.

The only winner is STILL Google which is why I bought some today for my kids. In this environment though Google stock is an extra risky investment as well even down 30 percent. This Microsoft/Yahoo noisy announcement is shit on a stinky market.

This is a time when you can’t read everything. You need to reduce the noise to an extra minimum as it relates to market and stock news. It has been a bull market and that is over. Seriously…OVER. It’s not like I am a bear. That’s a waste of time. It’s just that easy money is not so easy to make anymore and you just need to do less of EVERYTHING right now. I mean what’s the rush. An easy market will return again somewhere. You need to have cash. You can’t throw your cash away at investments impatiently while you wait…like…Ballmer.

Only Steve Ballmer is rushing. As I have said for two years while the bull rages, Microsoft is dead. I have said he should have been fired $100 billion ago as well. They almost got me interested based on their stock price hitting 5 year highs, and stock price only, but thank goodness I never bit.

Read these posts by Umair at BubbleGeneration if you want to get an amazing take on the real long-term issues at play. He just thinks. I love this:

I hate to be so blunt, but I’m short of time today, so let me offer a guess: Yahoo + Microsoft isn’t just a mistake – it’s a double suicide; a fatal error. Why? Neither company has the DNA to take on Google (let alone the massive number of startups waiting in the wings). Sure, they might collectively have the resources.

But DNA will always constrain YahooSoft from utilizing those resources in ways that create value.

Think Hotmail –> Yahoo Mail writ large. Think delicious –> nowhere. Think Microsoft hardball vs Google softball. Think of the near-total paralysis and groupthink in a YahooSoft boardroom.

The Street is thinking about this nascent industry in terms of “market share”. That’s shorthand for: “we have no real insight into competitive dynamics”.

Competition in this space is – and has been – about edge competencies, redefining brands, and reshaping consumption.

Now look a bit further out. Microsoft is gonna blow it’s entire cash pile on this deal.

That’s not just a strategic error: it’s going to be a fatal error.

Why? Combining bad DNA with bad doesn’t yield good. It yields worse.

The challenge facing the media industry – the reason Google blew it’s quarter – is to reinvent branding.

Do you think YahooSoft – a combined entity with even less empathy for connected consumption than each alone – really has any hope of doing so?

Not a chance.

I think – for what it’s worth – that this is the end of Yahoo as we know it. Fine – the real Yahoo, sadly, suffocated a long time ago.

The real point is: this is the end of Microsoft as we know it. Yes, I know, finally, isn’t it nice, etc – more to the point: the endgame will be to leave Google more firmly in the driver’s seat than ever before.

All we know one more trading day later is people are convinced this deal will happen, happen higher or some yutz or group of yutz’s (yutzem?) pays more for this new media conglomerate. I mean Yahoo is almost fully priced at Microsoft deal offer now. The freaking arbs are hard up for deals to….well…ARB!

All we know is that Google could probably care less. They do care enough to dispatch a few hundred Google Lawyers (still awful people even though they practice law for GOOGLE) to just mess around and run up bills about this and that.

All we know is Microsoft lost another percentage point today. The ‘ol closet indexers are pissed off.

Al we know is that Yahoo would be NUCKING FUTS to pass on this deal.

All we know is Google is getting sold on any news it releases. That’s good for me and my kids – my kids buying today by me.

It’s not that complicated accept for the arbs and traders pressing their luck on Yahoo at $29.

All I DO Know for sure is the risk in the market went up further on this merger news which created uncertainties we don’t need. Valuations will get held back at least until a final deal is struck in M.Y.M.A.

PS – Fred has another good post on the deal – actually how Yahoo can get out . Ya right!

Yahoo is getting a smoking deal.

This Steve Ballmer is a train out of control. Wealth destroyer. He must have picture of Bill Gates doing some crazy shit at Comdex.

He should have been fired about $100 billion ago.

I have looked really hard at Yahoo as it kept going down but they had no catalyst. A bet on a buyout from a putz like Ballmer is not a catalyst. He must have stood over at yahoo HQ just barking, snorting and sweating on people till they succumbed. Truly, he should have offered $16 and offered to help spin shit off. There is no way other bidders could have been frothing this up.

What do I know though? I am just writing about it wishing I had a bazillion February $20 calls on Yahoo. Somebody did, and they sure kept it quiet based on the stock price of late. Kudo’s to recent Yahoo buyers. You were rewarded for a bad bet in a bad market.

Now that I am on the line with my take, let’s see how wrong I am :) .

I don’t buy the Vista numbers and growth, but I do believe Microsoft is a huge beneficiary of the weak dollar and cheaper computing. My mistake for calling them dead at the bottom . Many times over .

Today, Microsoft may be offering a great low risk entry if you believe in the trends I just mentioned. Brian takes a good look at the pricing picture:

If I cared, I would take an entry right about here and use a stop below $29 for now.

As for business drivers, maybe Halo and gaming in genera?

You tell me.

Disclosure – This daily post is dedicated to the bears who will point to it yet gain as ‘THE’ Top.

I have stayed away from the stock of Microsoft and have been calling it dead. I guess I am/have been wrong. They are on fuego?

I think their accountants adding up Vista sales must have worked at a derivatives hedge fund, but the market believes baby. Don’t fight it. I think the stock is buyable, but will fish elsewhere.

I am happy as my other software stocks should get juiced.

It was a horrible day for one of my faves GSIC, but what does not kill us…

As for Iteractive Brokers…they Kung Pao’d the numbers and are set to rock into all-time highs. Thanks to Cole (Blackstar) pounding the table on this one since it’s Dutch Auction IPO, I have stayed with the stock and been adding recently. Blackstar may be finally adding it to their portfolio tomorrow.

I am sitting in Buddy Media’s new office blogging this. It has the sweetest angled view at Central Park. Awesome.

Disclosure- Long IBKR, GSIC and Buddy Media

He needs to be gone and Microsoft needs to be split up…yesterday.

Seeing that he was giving out his email address today – steveb@microsoft.com – if you want to sell him your company, please email him . Especially you FLY ! I have begn sending him all-time high tech breakouts at the close.

Today’s e-mail Message:

Hi Steve…Howard here from Wallstrip (you could have bought us too) – Here’s who is cranking today other than you – Apple, Adobe, Logitech, Dolby and Synaptics. Not YOU! Happy to trade for you if you need to diversify…unless you quit you should. Howard (howard@lindzon.com)

The e-mail has not bounced back yet so Steve and I are now chatting :) . He should follow my twitters too.

I was in the Apple store today (packed as usual and at an odd time) trying to buy Microsoft Office for a few new machines around the house and office. Of course, there was the $499 pack for old people like me and the $149 for students. Has Microsoft not figured out that old people have less money than students (subprime mortgages…helloooo). Forget that the prices should be flipped, but what’s with the confusing choices of the exact same product.

Lucky my kids are students :) , so I got the student pack.

At this point that whole pack costs them pennies. It would be bearable if they were plunging the obscene profits into great new products and design for us old, full retail paying people with Mac machines. Instead they piss their profits away on more knock off products with lame, used cliches. Joel nails it here .

Chartreuse drives the point home further .

Microsoft needs to get in the porn business to go along with the spam and pop-ups that already come with their ‘student pack’.

Until than…..Value trap!

Disclosure – Long Apple

What takes them so long. Are’nt high paid people that understand the space working for them (rhetorical). All that hashappened is the price went up. Paying more than a $5 billion valuation seems stupid at this point. Time will tell.

You can’t blame Facebook for accepting this (if they do), but Microsoft would be better off buying RIMM and moving on. They can’t really add value here to my experience, it will only hurt Facebook.

Let’s be honest…no?