Deep Market Thoughts…The 'FOUR TELLS'…Interest Rates, US Dollar, Goldman Sachs and Apple

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  • on October 7th, 2009

The market is just trending. When it’s trending you can’t think.

When it’s trending you just want to own the strongest stocks. Right now most are from China and while you can’t make sense of it as you can’t touch and feel their products everyday, it’s just the way it is. I own a few $ntes and $pwrd and I will never visit their HQ or likely use their products.

Mobile is strong ( I own $infa and $swks) as is healthcare, biotech, pets (long $neog, $pets) and some commodities.

It is never easy owning stocks that you can’t explain the growth. For me that’s oil, gold and other commodities. The stock price increases though are textbook based on the monetary policy and interest rate environment. The FED is printing money, interest rates are declining and the US dollar continues to hit lows. Since I am not a macroeconmic lover and don’t trust the government to do ANYTHING sane, I participate but just in a light way. It’s why I have ridden Gold, Silver and the Canadian Dollar for so long…even through the huge declines along the way the last few years. When you own policy driven stocks and industries, you stick with them as along as the policies remain in place.

When I buy growth stocks, and it’s obvious you need to own some based on the price action, you listen to nothing except the price action. Money management absolutley rules.

I am looking to own my big positions in the growth stocks that I can truly see and feel the ‘catalysts’.

Apple is one such stock I am revisiting for the umpteenth time. They continue to have multiple catalysts. It is for the moment unstoppable. Baidu, Google, Amazon and Goldman Sachs are the other big names with multiple catalysts. I don’t own Goldman, but I bought back Google and Baidu today. Goldman is not for me.

Try and keep it simple right now. Unfortunately, this is as easy as the market gets.

The information in this blog post represents my own opinions and does not contain a recommendation for any particular security or investment. I or my affiliates may hold positions or other interests in securities mentioned in the Blog, please see my Disclaimer page for my full disclaimer.

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