They are just pices of paper spooky, relax.

this blog is not one with emotional voews of the market, just the idiots writing about it.

Also, 12k? That would 15% off the highs. Considering the mean market reaction to recession has been 30% you are assuming either a) We will not have a recession b) This will be such a small recession we cant expect the market to hit the average recession pullback or c) Its different this time.

At every step in this decline people want to believe it’s “contained”. Housing does not affect anything else, then credit problems dont affect anything else, then consumer spending will not affect etc. At some point this psychology changes. Look at the parallels to the psychology in 2000 – the cracks showed as a “slight uptick in inventory” at suppliers like Cisco and JDSU. Then it was that dot-coms were going to blow up, but business capex would protect SUNW and CSCO. The rest is history.

imho we are in the sweet spot for shorting *right now*. The insistence that things are “contained” is creating opportunity as it is only a matter of time until its clear that things are not contained.

Sad to say, this will also affect the growth faves. When C is trading sub 20 or INTC below 15 you think folks are still going to be paying 50x earnings for burrito’s? Maybe, but I doubt it.

Moving out of stocks that are falling and moving into stocks that are rising (at all-time highs, like agriculture) does sound like trend following to me.

TRENDS – Find them, ride them and get off!