Deep Market Thoughts…This Depression is Depressing

Posted by Howard
on April 20th, 2009

It’s all about ‘Ball Bearings ‘ and ‘Capital Structure ‘.

If today was the beginning of a new selloff, things would make sense to me.

I am not a very good predictor of stock prices and markets, but the rally of late has made little sense.

Last week I was getting pissed at all the small cap talk on Stocktwits, but when I realized it was from some of the best traders, I decided to listen in. I should have participated :) . If you listened to Brian Shannon and Kunal , they were not emotional about the symbols or the companies, they were just following price. The commentary was a different story. They know as I do that when the shit starts running, you are near the end of a run. Nobody knows how to time the ending, but if you can manage money, you can participate in these runs.

I love following all the chatter but don’t have the time and energy to participate in all the market action these days.

What little spare time I have these days is hunting for a property in my neighborhood to buy. I want to own something commercial and pay rent to myself. I am talking to every friendly on pricing and availability and the math is not close to working…at least for me.

You would think that prices would be in a dramatic decline. Retail is most seriously for shit in even the best spots in Phoenix and Scottsdale. It is a freaking ghostown without the tumbleweeds. BUT – there is no real giveup. We know all the reasons (Goldman and The Fed), but they can’t fix the business cycle and you better not buy into their bullshit for more than a trade.

The Esplinade in Phoenix is a great example of the real problem. The Esplinade is where I called home for many years. The location is quadruple A. The buildings at 24th and Camelback sold in the largest transaction in Phoenix history, about a day before the bottom fell out of the real estate markets. If GOD had bought the buildings, he would still be f@$%#%ked today because sometimes, the MATH does not work. Pensions (false gods) are freaking buried in the deal. Because every person in the chain of this deal is in denial and the pension is so far removed from the day to day, JOEY the building manager is stuck with doing the impossible…leasing office and retail at prices that will never happen again.

This building needs to get flushed as do thousands of other buildings so that the proper CAPITAL STRUCTURE gets set and a healthy cycle can resume once again.

PS – great post from Roger on much the same subject .

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