The Glass is Half Full, But Their is Some Shit in Your Drink – Be Careful!

I like to keep things cheery over here on my blog. The glass is always half-full to me.

The problem with my half full glass in April 2014 is it is full of financial bullshit, government turds, empty test tubes and lessons on ‘culture’ from geeks in San Francisco.

I continue to be underinvested in stocks because of the price action, but I am starting to feel some extra weight now on the indexes themselves. If you are following me, I have actually made some profitable trades on the short side, and I think there is more to come.

Here is a look at our US GDP for 2013 and it is rather disgusting. Full of waste and non productive costs from the financial and government sector.

The bright side of the financial sector GDP numbers is that hundreds of startups are focused on cleaning up the waste in the financial sector in this next phase of the technology boom.

On the government side, I am more horrified.

Net Neutrality has gone from Page 10 to Page one. I argue (but can’t prove) that stocks being the leading indicator that they are started to discount this news a few months back as high beta web and technology stocks started sputtering well before the FCC fiasco made front page news.

Now that Net Neutrality is back on page 1, I don’t expect technology and web stocks to get a sustained rally going until there is much more clarity.

I am confident that the web universe will prevail, but I have yet to see where the real leadership is organized yet around pushing back the latest FCC rhetoric led by Tom Wheeler. Tom is dangerous. We knew this a long time ago and so did Obama.

On the lighter side, here are my 10 unanswered questions I directed to Tom Wheeler, who has an inactive Twitter account of course.

As for what else ails mother market…

The biotech boom/bubble/bull seems to be coming to an end. I like this chart from Kimble. Wall Street has been doing it’s thing and may have finally created enough crappy supply to satiate our demand.

Unlike the railroad or internet booms/bubbles which were GOOD, the biotech boom will leave less to build on. The Companies that fail leave little behind to build on.

And finally….

Silicon Valley is spending a ton of time building great buildings (Apple and Salesforce) and chatting about ‘culture‘. This will pass because it always does, but for now, color me jaded and cynical.


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