Nasdaq 10,000 and What Could go Wrong?

The Nasdaq passed 6,200 today. Insert happy emoji or picture from my view last week at La Jolla Country Club:

Here is a chart of the Nasdaq 100 which is now 30 percent above the 1999 bubble:

$NDX perspective: now 30% higher than the Dot Com bubble. weeee $QQQ

— Nic (@racernic) Jun. 1 at 07:21 AM

I thought it would be a good time to revisit my Nasdaq 10,000 posts and see how we stand.

My first Nasdaq 10,000 post was in 2014. The Nasdaq was hitting 52-week highs at 4,200. My friend Yoni, founder of Etoro (in Israel), was sitting with me in London and chatting about the blockchain and all the new cool tech toys the world had since the Nasdaq last peaked in 1999. Here is how I ended the post summing up my convo with Yoni:

Yoni’s grandfather has lived past 100 which is a miracle, but all three of his young kids could make it easily.

Software, 3D printers, plunging oil prices…

China, India and a new financial system built around the blockchain that takes global trading to the next level, leaving America in the dust as a global financial superpower.

From a sentiment perspective, the markets are hated…just for the rich, not real. Poor wages are real.

I can see Nasdaq 10,000 now myself in this light. Yoni sees it and more amazingly, without much help from America.

Yoni had the direction really right but was a weeee bit optimistic on the speed seeing we are still a 50 plus percent further gain from Nasdaq 10,000.

Flash forward to August of last year and I updated the Nasdaq 10,000 thinking with ‘what could go right?’ Other than the Trump call, I got it right.

Today with the Nasdaq hitting further new highs, everything is going right for technology heavyweights.

Joining the Nasdaq at all time highs is:

Japan (the ETF hit 21 year highs)
Germany
Ireland
Switzerland
Sweden
Hong Kong
Netherlands

France, Belgium, South Korea and Argentina are just one good day away from all-time highs.

France? What Le Fuck.

Argentina? Si.

The knuckleheads in Russia, Brazil and Italy are the only 3 countries still FIFTY percent away from their all-time highs. Ok that makes sense.

So what could go wrong?

I really have no idea. The markets are in a relentless uptrend and the news is being dominated by Trump and worry, which markets climb all over.

Something on page 10 will eventually get us. It usually is greed and froth. If I could point to one area where froth is running highest it would be in the crypto world. Charlie captures the froth best with his chart of the Bitcoin Trust trading for $511 with assets worth $231.

At the close today, buyers of the Bitcoin Investment Trust paid $511 for assets worth $221. 131% premium. $GBTC

— Charlie Bilello, CMT (@charliebilello) Jun. 1 at 07:28 PM

The fact that Stocktwits ‘BLEB‘ shirts (Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum and Blockchain) are selling well or even exist, might just mean the froth is high.

Congrats to the optimists in the meantime and please buy one of the ‘BLEB’ shirts for a hipster in your family.


Also published on Medium.