The Most Violent Passover – Gary Shandling

Ellen and I watched The Gary Shandling tribute the last few days on HBO that was put together by Judd Apatow.

It is long and we loved it all.

I was/am a huge Gary Shandling fan but did not know much about his life. Now I do.

I remember exactly where I was when Gary Shandling had his first appearance on Johnny Carson. I was with my dad and we both almost pissed our pants.

One of the clips from the special was classic Gary on Dave Letterman.

Have a great week everyone.

Bullish on Collectibles

The digital collectible and regular collectible space done digitally are a fave new frontier for me.

I’ve blogged about StockX and their competitor GOAT just raised another $80 million GOAT …note that Josh Luber the founder of StockX will be at Stocktoberfest.

We invested in Rally Road that is bringing the collectible car market to everyone.

This is a good read explaining digital collectibles and the market opportunity.

I like that Union Square (Fred Wilson) and a16z (Marc Andreesen) are now putting their money into the space as well investing in CryptoKitties.

The best way to learn is to just try it.

Catching up on Google and Augmented Reality versus Virtual Reality…

For years Google has been my tech ETF of choice.

I am keeping a close eye right now because Google (the stock) is at an important point.

My friend Raoul posted a good chart on the stock with this note:

If anyone is in doubt how important the recent low was in Google, it’s the 200 day moving average and the trend line on the log chart going back to inception. The US equity market will live or die by that line. Let’s see..

Next up…

This was interesting on the ‘flippening’ at hand with augmented reality and virtual reality:

This piece by CB Insights on the subject as it relates to Apple is really good. The gist:

Apple is among the companies mentioning augmented reality the most: 9 times in total since 2016. In fact, as we detailed in our recent Apple Strategy Teardown, AR is looking very much like Apple’s next big thing — more so than voice, or cars, or AI.

“I regard it as a big idea like the smartphone,” Tim Cook has said. “I think AR is that big, it’s huge.”

There are several reasons why augmented reality is a more promising technology than VR, but the biggest is the wider variety of use cases.

Boiled down, VR has basically one application: by definition, everything in virtual reality is what my 4-year-old daughter would describe as “pretend.”

VR is mostly for escapism: games and entertainment. But not for applications IRL.

AR, on the other hand, overlays images on reality.

There will continue to be a lot of mergers and acquisitions by the tech giants in the coming years because of AR and VR. A lot is at stake.

Disclosure -Long Apple and Google.

The Crypto Passover

I flew into San Francisco early this morning with my partner Gary for a long day of pitches.

It was a gorgeous day.

For a big city I am always amazed at the amount of people I run into as I walk to and from meetings.

The highlight of my day was running into Quincy Smith who I have not seen since he was CEO of CBS Interactive which acquired my last company Wallstrip. I had just run into his partner Mike Marquez across town while heading to our first meeting of the day.

It was also exciting to meet Ross Mason the founder of Mulesoft. His company was just acquired for $6.5 billion by Salesforce. Ross walked Gary and I through the founding of Mulesoft in 2006 (in Malta of all places). Ross quickly moved to the Valley and the rest is history. He also loves investing in startups and in a small world we have both invested in Startstackin.

Later in the day I finally got to meet Parker Thompson who is a great investor and whip smart thinker. He ran the legendary Twitter handle StartupLJackson.

The Stocktwits meetup to end the evening was packed and it was great to see so many fresh faces excited about investing and trading.

I am excited for the long Easter weekend and the beginning of Passover as the family gets together in Phoenix.

I imagine my nephews will be asking me about the Bitcoin crash and my father in law will be shining his gold bricks and telling us I told you so as he puts on Fox News. I will remind him of his same bearish call last passover with Bitcoin at $1,000.

As you spend passover complaining about Facebook (they are pretty evil, but not as evil as the media would like you to think) and not talking to the relative that buried you in crypto at Thanksgiving, take a few minutes to remember that we all paid to save the banks which just took a record $34 billion in overdraft fees.

OMT – Oh My Tesla

I will be in San Francisco for the day tomorrow and my friend Karen Greenwood organized a Stocktwits meetup to interview me and chat about the markets.

I figured we should really have some fun, so I asked JC (All Star Charts) to drive in from Sonoma to let me chat with him about the markets.

I also pinged Josh Elman who is now a VP at Robinhood and a Partner at Greylock (and former product lead at Twitter) to come in and talk about the markets and of course Twitter. I am thrilled Josh is now at Robinhood and excited to catch up with him.

Here are the details if you are in the neighborhood – Jamber on Folsom Street.

As for Tesla…

We are quickly back to 2014 prices (not for the cars).

It turns out that rising rates matter for ‘growth’ stocks with no path to profitability.

I like everything about Tesla other than the stock.

PS – Nothing about Hitler is funny, but Hitler owning Tesla Bonds made me laugh.

This Too Shall Pass…

This made me laugh:

Ok here I go…

Way way way back in November of 2017 you could launch Fartcoin and your FART token would triple if you had the right people pushing the idea on chat apps.

Today you can yell (tweet) ‘the FTC will investigate Twitter for selling your data‘ and the stock drops 15 percent.

Markets can be light and easy to push around in both directions.

I enjoyed November 2017, but in December noted that we were on borrowed time. I wish I was wrong but I knew I was right.

Here are the UGLY numbers for the crypto markets in 2018…

I have no idea when the bear market in crypto ends. It could just be beginning. I mean taxes are not even due yet.

The social media with hunt is likely just beginning, but the markets price this stuff in pretty fast, especially when the cash flow is real.

Investing is hard.

Tired of Selling Facebook… and Momentum Monday

Today people got tired of selling Facebook. That’s all.

If you want to hear some deeper thoughts about last week and today, Ivan and I did a 17 minute ‘Momentum Monday’. We try and look smart while going through our lists to see what’s working and what could work next.

As I wrote last week, ‘there will be bounces‘ and today we got a doozie.

Michael has a great post on this market moment.

The S&P 500 gained 2.7%, it’s best day since August 2015. It’s nice to see some green after a lot of red last week, but big up days don’t usually occur in healthy markets. Going back to 1970, 74% of the +2.5% days happened under the 200-day moving average. 76% of them happened when the market was already in a 10% drawdown. In other words, the best days tend to be snap backs like we saw today.

Buying panics are pretty rare. You typically don’t see big up days in healthy markets because buyers don’t capitulate all at once the way that sellers do. Of the 169 different +2.5% days since 1970, only five occurred within 1% of an all-time high: November 1980, February 1991, August 1991, February 1999, and March 21 2000 (three days before the top).

I hope the market never looks back but I would be surprised as hell.

It’s not easy being a blind squirrel watching other blind squirrels.

Price Drives Sentiment…Part 2

This piece of data from Ryan Detrick caught my eye as it relates to how the markets may trade this week:

Since 1950, the S&P 500 has been down 2% or more on a Thursday and Friday only 6 times … today was number 7.

One of those times was the ’87 crash, but the other 5 times saw the S&P 500 closed higher the next week.

This week will be interesting .

Yesterday I shared a graphic that shows how price drives sentiment. Here is part 2 which I would title…’how easily price and sentiment turn‘:

I get caught looking silly all the time investing in momentum growth stocks.

Just three weeks ago I wrote ‘Tech Tech Tech Tech‘ as a blog headline and today with The Nasdaq reeling that title is just a wee bit off.

Price drives my strategy for the most part so as good as my stocks looked just three weeks ago, this weekend I am back on defense.

Technically, JC has my favorite post of the weekend and I agree with him.

Selling on the way up is something I have done for years and I always hear the boobirds when I share my sells in an upward trending stock or market.

I don’t invest and and journal for applause…though LOL’s are fine.

When Momentum Dies

The S&P was down 6 percent this week. Just 16 more weeks like this one and the S&P will be zero.

The Nasdaq 100 was just as nasty. To have some perspective on how far the big tech has run take a look at this chart:

I like to say ‘sell when you can, not when you have to’ because the Nasdaq feels vulnerable short term for 10-20 percent more downside.

It’s not all bad news. Dropbox went public today on the Nasdaq 11 years after launching. The stock rose 30 percent.

The most amazing thing about the Dropbox IPO was that it is the first company of the Y Combinator portfolio to go public. That seems almost impossible over thousands of startups they have funded the last 13 years.

There is plenty to hate about this last boom in technology, but there is much to look forward too.

We all spent the week taking shots at Facebook, but meet Auris Health:

No, this is not the latest Call of Duty first-person shooter game. This is Monarch: the extraordinarily ambitious new flexible robotics platform dreamed up by technology pioneer and da Vinci creator Fred Moll, MD.

Today, after raising more than half a billion dollars in equity capital from leading technology investors and operating in stealth for the past six years, Auris Health is unveiling Monarch Platform: an FDA-approved device that has the potential to transform endoscopy — the use of small cameras and tools to enter the body non-invasively.

I spent the week reading fintech startup decks and meeting with founders in Phoenix and Los Angeles.

It is amazing that we are 10 years from the financial and banking crisis and this stat exists:

It is hard to disrupt a bank.

Have a good weekend and get ready for next week because there should be some opportunities to peck away at some 8 to 80 stocks