Predictions for 2018 – Supply, Supply, Supply!

There will be a LOT of market predictions offered up the next few days as we head into 2018.

I am reminded of one of my favorite Al Pacino/Scarface riffs as predictions heat up:

Be careful with your hard earned money.

I am optimistic about the markets, private and public as we head into 2018.

Technically, the market internals are strong.

Fundamentally, everyone is in the storytelling business right now. Try raising money for 25 percent IRR private equity returns in an environment where the S&P has no volatility and is up 20 percent on the year and Cryptocurrencies are up 1,000 percent with daily liquidity.

Fundamentally, the US government is in ‘let the hogs run’ mode.

Banks, telcom, and other financial hucksters are going to have a field day in 2018. Josh Brown sums up the perfect storm that awaits the sellers of financial products.

Though the whole crypto market is still smaller than the market capitalization of Facebook, the supply of deals and digital assets will explode further in 2018:

When the year began, the combined value of all investable cryptocurrencies was just $17.7 billion, with bitcoin making up the vast majority of this market cap. But as of Dec. 19, the combined market cap of the more than 1,360 cryptocurrencies hit as high as $642 billion. That’s a better than 3,500% increase in cryptocurrency market value in less than a year, which is a bigger increase than some investors will see throughout their lifetimes.

Take a read of what’s brewing up in ‘conservative’ Canada for a taste of what could get going here in the USA in 2018.

Everyone wants a shot at a lottery ticket in 2018 and the people always get what they want.


Also published on Medium.