I have a lot to get off my chest (through my fingers) today, but before I start… this made me laugh re the plunges taking place in crypto land.
This was also really funny:
The hyperbolic headlines are ridiculous at the moment.
‘Break up Big Tech’
‘Silicon Valley is Over’
‘Rising rates, tariffs, ________, ________,__________, _______ are going to crash the market.
I am paid to follow my instincts, find great founders and great stocks. These headlines continue to create opportunity.
The stock market – at least the tech stocks, select biotech, brokers and banks that I own – seem to be saying bullshit.
US tech companies have been dealing with tariffs – pirating, theft and a giant Chinese, Russian and North Korean digital wall – forever.
Of course the Chinese are dumping whatever commodities they can, but we have been living in a global coordinated money printing scam of a world now since 2008. What the hell did anyone expect?
Exxon has lost $60 billion in market cap recently, but to be honest Twitter is an oil in it’s own right and could sop up that valuation on it’s own. Exxon had their century of pillaging. Don’t get sentimental with your money.
As for the run in Netflix? It is now just 11 percent shy of Disney’s market capitalizaton. Just this year the value of Netflix has increased more than the valuation of the entire #MAGA US steel sector.
If you don’t like it…buy Disney and steel stocks and vote with your money.
As for the great run in Twitter (long)…I love this headline to a chart of Facebook vs. Twitter by Josh Brown. This was also a great quick read from someone who loves and hates Twitter as much as me but sees the opportunity.
I’ll go with perennial winner Brad Feld on the subject of the ‘Death of Silicon Valley’ and say Silicon Valley is NOT over…Brad Feld nails it for us.
As I have been writing here, it’s not just FANG that has to work for technology to work. Of course I would love to see Apple bust through $1 trillion.
Those prick corporations we handed these tax breaks… they will spend that money on enterprise software and acquisitions that we all have the right to profit from if we position ourselves correctly (I have been long $ZEN, $OKTA $MULE on this blog and Stocktwits if you follow and other leaders in the space like Hubspot, Workday, Salesforce and Service Now have romped as well).
In real estate – Zillow has sneaked up and through to all-time highs.
Etsy was left for dead last year and along with Square and Shopify (long), e-commerce is not just about Visa, Mastercard and Amazon (long all 3 of those too).
The pricks at Goldman are also teasing all-time highs (long).
Spotify is going public without any help from the brokers because they don’t need the blood money and ‘slippage’ that comes with it. That’s not bad. If it is bad, it’s only bad for Spotify as others in better financial position will follow. Side note – This is a great read from Ben on ‘Can Spotify Be Another Netflix?‘
If we do not crash, I can see IPO’s having an insane open window for the next few years. Has that been priced in anywhere?
What else am I looking at if the market keeps working?
Have a look at what interests the people at Y Combinator. They see more deals than almost anyone and they see patterns earlier than most.
It feels like the only thing that would suprise this market at this point is if Fat Nixon was NOT impeached.
PS – Do not get me started on the VOICE trend which seems to be just getting into hype mode. I will share some more on this tomorrow.
PSS – Stocktoberfest East is getting closer…April 25 in New York City. Stocktwits has put together an insane lineup of traders and investors that will be sharing their best ideas.
In keeping up with tradition I will delve into the latest trends and also will be interviewing some great venture capitalists.
Also published on Medium.