On Wednesday eve, with markets closed Thursday I noted …”This has been the only market of my lifetime where staring at the market and willing things to go up works. Tonight Ethereum”
Sure enough, as I write this early Friday AM, Ethereum is up another 18 percent.
What is going on?
Josh Brown has a wicked good post up titled ‘The Year of Living Dangerously‘ which puts an exclamation market on this least volatile year in history for markets.
I would call it the year of ‘Invest Like a Sociopath’.
Please read all of Josh’s great post. Some of my favorite riffs include:
Stocks trading at record highs and approaching record valuations not seen since the biggest bubble in American history, seventeen years ago. You just don’t understand the new economy – total addressable market, user count, revenue growth and scale are all that matter now.
Sixty new closing record highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average so far in 2o17 out of a total 224 business days. And we’re heading into the seasonally strong period, what the hell are you doing not in Facebook and Netflix?
Tencent surpasses Facebook in market capitalization at $523 billion. Amazon’s market cap explodes from $350 billion in January to $550 billion in November. Apple’s market cap takes out $900 billion, surely on the way to an unprecedented trillion bucks. Wal-Mart closes the acquisition of Jet.com, a company with barely any revenues and negative profits – and it’s market cap subsequently jumps by $70 billion (not a typo) over the ensuing twelve months. The old math is out the window, it’s worth what I say it’s worth.
Bonds hover near highs too, around the world, with unthinkably low yields to pay back their investors for the risks they’re taking. Too much money sloshing around, it’s gotta go somewhere.
Market volatility is non-existent, it’s been replaced with political volatility. We’re trading memes and scandals. The new Vix is the retweet count of a dick pic story. “No more, please!” you plead, as one by one, your heroes in sports, journalism, Hollywood, and business are ripped down off their pedestals, bathrobes open and text histories exposed. Oh my god, Charlie Rose?
Another great riff…
The Senate Judiciary Committee convenes a hearing on the ways in which foreign agents were able to influence our elections last year. It’s the most brazen incursion into our election process by a foreign government in American history, and it was facilitated at a cost of pennies and dollars, without a single shot being fired. The three largest social media concerns, whose platforms are primarily responsible for this, are called to testify before the nation. The CEOs don’t even bother showing up. No Zuckerberg, no Dorsey, no Pichai. Facebook, Twitter and Google send their lawyers.
Who the hell are these people? The legal department?
When Wall Street almost blew up the nation, it was at least tactful enough to send the head guys for their grilling. And they were visibly terrified.
These guys are a different story. They stayed in California. Monitoring a congressional hearing about yourself by cell phone is the most millennial shit ever.
Congress is a toy to them. A cash-strapped, debt-laden, in-fighting, vestigial organ of a failing state. At the current rate, these companies will someday be bigger, more influential and better capitalized than the Capitol.
In the case of Facebook, it’s got more users outside the country than at home. The fact that it’s domiciled in America is almost incidental. It sees itself as some sort of supra-national body conducting its affairs globally and on an equal footing with sovereign governments around the world. And with 2 billion humans checking into its apps all day, every day, why shouldn’t it? Can you name a religion or a nation or even a race with a higher “user” base?
Back to me here…
Trump won’t do anything about what we are witnessing in the markets. Trump will keep being Trump.
Facebook, Google and Twitter won’t change.
Investors won’t change their behavior because it is fun calling price moves before they happen and profiting from them.
The markets will tip us off on their own.
Maybe it’s oil back above $58 and on it’s way to $75 that will change things.
Maybe it’s short term US Treasury Yields inching to 9 year highs that eventually change the investing landscape?
In the meantime, risk is on. I won’t feel bad about participating.
Also published on Medium.