I really try and want to keep things simple. Especially when it comes to investing.
My friend Charlie shared this chart last week that pretty much sums up things since the March 2009 bottom:
A lot of experts have been paraded across financial media since 2009 to tell you what to do, but there was not much to do except shut off the TV and buy everything and anything.
There will be warning shots to end these massive trends. On the above chart, the eve of the last election and December of last year seemed like potential trend change moments (for stocks at least).
BUT. HERE. WE. ARE.
Not just any old all-time highs. As Charlie points out, literally everything is at all-time highs. Even Bitcoin is back above $10,000 and Gold is hitting 6 year highs.
If would take a real idiot to screw this up…
Enter Fat Nixon.
To his credit…even he has not been able to screw these trends up. He sure has tried with bad hires (he hate his Fed hire to be specific) and his ‘Kerplunk’ strategy of pulling out all the straws at once (see Climate Change, Iran and China) because he thinks having all the marbles in his version of the game ‘Kerplunk’ is winning.
In summary…these trends seem so strong that predicting/guessing how it ends is silly.
So I stay long, continue to invest, try to follow some basic rules, remember that the market is making me look smart and make sure I don’t get swept away when the big trend change eventually takes hold.