Trump Media and Semiconductors…The Perfect Storm for Markets

Donald Trump Media is fine with me.

Let him bash heads with Fox and MSNBC and CNN for our aging population. This storyline is developing and the markets don’t care and seem quite happy.

Happy markets, happy Howie. Let’s leave them alone.

There is so much happening in global markets right now that it has been hard to sleep. I’m completely fascinated with all the crosscurrents.

I loved this ‘Trust vs GDP Data‘ study which shows that Norwegians, the Swedes and The Dutch trust just about everybody. I have so many good friends from Norway and the Netherlands and I must visit Sweden next summer. I would warn my friends there to be careful now that this study is done as American Bankers will be coming for them in waves. Brexit will likely push more opportunities to Sweden and the Netherlands.

Japan continues to go private. ‘Come for the sushi and people watching but please don’t buy our stocks’ is their new business/tourism tagline.

Emerging markets are all the rage this year. I own MercadoLibre ($MELI) and some Ctrip ($CTRP) (which i disclosed on Stocktwits streams) as high beta proxies on travel and commerce just to keep myself engaged.

The US remains juicy with opportunity. You know how I feel about software, but Chris Dixon wrote this fun ‘Eleven Reasons to Be Excited About the Future of Technology‘.

Whether these trends continue/develop is not important at the moment. Hundreds of Billions are being invested to try and push them into our lives and economies and with the money flowing some fat trends are well under way.

The biggest is semiconductors. It makes sense since all these trends are powered by semiconductors.

I own $SMH (the Van Eck Semiconductor ETF). As with any trend, there is no need to chase.

As with any big trend you do not need to get fancy. Intel, Applied Materials and The ETF just mentioned are all ways to join in as they hit 15 and 16 year highs. Prices not seen since the 2000 bubble – the era of the PC.

I’m keeping a close eye on this one chart that shows the realtive strength of technology to the overall S&P. As money continues to flow to passive investing and equities, a strong market should help technology stocks on a relative basis.

anyone think tech breaks out of a 15-year consolidation relative to S&Ps? $XLK / $SPY

— J.C. Parets (@allstarcharts) Aug. 17 at 12:04 PM

The banks are also showing signs of life. I personally believe they will sputter and frustrate investors as rates remain low. Their millenial efforts while cute are nauseatingly transparent. Goldman Sachs may call their millennial bank ‘Marcus’, but that won’t be enough.

Interest rates are the area I am keeping a close eye. It seems the media is finally at peace with negative interest rates. Not me.

I asked JC to send me a few charts and sure enough, their are some divergences showing up that hint rates may be headed higher at the moment for at least a trade. That may be why financials are catching a good bid too.

Here is the failed breakdown for now in 30 year yields:

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My fashology trio of Nike, Underarmor and LULU continues to be a large investing theme for me and is perking up as well.

Hope this helps.


Also published on Medium.