What Could Go Right? and The Year of The Disaster

Before I get started with ‘what could go right’…

Yesterday my friend Alex (a GP at a large VC firm) called me to talk about the financial services landscape and it was like the movie ‘Big’ because halfway through the call as he was dealing with his Uber driver and peeling a jerky wrapper, I just yelled at him and said why are you acting like me and me like you…

It was a reminder of what people must have to put up with in working with me!

Onwards…

The Japan Times have called 2018 ‘The Year Of The Disaster’ which pretty much sums up the markets globally as well:

I am hearing that General Electric and Trump 2020 are bidding for the logo rights…

The anxiety and dread levels are global and rising at the moment.

I fielded many nervous calls from friends with magnitudes of capital larger than me today.

I have been through so many panics and love being the call that people make when volatility rises.

As usual, I tell people to ignore all headlines for at least a week or two and turn off the TV.

Headlines have a way of getting through to even the calmest people when their portfolios are down 10-30 percent this quickly.

How bad is this market correction been this quarter? This bad:

Just to put things into perspective. The 12.6% selloff in S&P 500 in Q4 2018 would be the 9th largest historically, UBS has calculated. Only Great Depression, Pearl Harbor/WWII, ’87 crash and ’08 crisis worse.

The markets have people woke. They should be.

It’s why I preach panicking first.

As an optimist and panic first disciple, I love these moments in time.

Volatility is messy and noisy and scary but it is also a great environment for investors and traders that live quietly (no news, no tv) with strong networks, scale best.

I like this one chart from Jesse on Stocktwits today which you should blow up and read:

It is really easy to see what can go wrong right now…but a lot can still go right from here.


Also published on Medium.